Krzysztof BłędowskiVisiting adjunct professor at the Rzeszów University of Information Technology and Management
Yes, it is.
The existing jurisprudence is sufficient in scope to press charges for maliciously weakening the state. This means the proposed extrajudicial committee assumes that prosecutorial lapses had taken place. This in turn implies deficient administration of the rule of law. One way or another, the only explanation for only now investing the committee with the new powers is to weaken political expression.
The Law and Justice (PiS) government is missing the raison d’état that should guide its mission. The Polish people rightly expect the country’s growing wealth to translate into elevated global clout. It is in Poland’s interest to enjoy strong alliances. Yet this government consistently pressed the wrong buttons in its foreign policy.
Poland has been punching below its weight in Brussels for years. The country’s rule-of-law squabbles have diluted its power base and attendant spoils.
Berlin has pined for a strong alliance with Warsaw for a long while. Business ties remain strong. Poland’s upright defense posture has a lesson to teach Berlin. Yet, relations are strained.
As if that weren’t enough, Poland’s other consequential relationship, that with Washington, has weakened unnecessarily, too.
The massive demonstration last Sunday against the proposed law shows that the PiS government doesn’t have the ear of the electorate. It may yet pay the price at the upcoming legislative election this fall.
Piotr BurasDirector of the Warsaw Office of the European Council on Foreign Relations
Democracies do not die overnight. Democracy in Poland has been under assault for the last eight years. The so-called “Russian influence commission” is just a dangerous escalation in a long process in which the democratic system based upon separation of powers has been hollowed out.
The government ignores court verdicts; the constitutional court is used by the executive to protect ministers against the system of justice; public media systematically lies and intimidates the opposition.
Just a few days ago, the Law and Justice (PiS) party proposed amendments to the criminal code. The declared goal: to toughen the fight against foreign espionage. The draft law criminalizes the release of all—not only confidential—information, which could cause damage to the interests of Poland if disclosed. Sharing facts with foreigners about corruption, violations of the rule of law or human rights, investments risks, or even opinions about history could easily fall under this category. It is a warning signal to all critics of the government and an attempt to silence them.
The verification commission on the Russian influence, already a binding law, falls under the same category. Going after the opposition under the cover of defending Poland’s security against Russia could bring the overhaul of democratic structures to the tipping point. The march of 500,000 people in defense of democracy last Sunday, June 4, gives hope that this attempt would fail. But the outcome of this struggle can still be both: farce or tragedy.
Carme ColominaSenior research fellow at the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB)
Since 2015 we have witnessed an accelerated erosion of the rule of law in Poland. Nothing happening now is new: silencing the opposition, controlling the public media, reforms of the judicial system that are neither impartial nor independent, according to the European Court of Justice.
And then there are blurred lines between party, state, and church; the institutionalization of homophobia; setbacks in sexual and reproductive rights; smear campaigns (in 2019) using candidate text messages that were stolen with Pegasus spyware; changes in the election financing law that allowed Law and Justice (PiS) to spend almost three times more than its opposition. So Polish democracy has long been weakened and under threat.
However, in this scenario there is an added danger pointing straight to the credibility of the European Commission which, for the first time in all these years, has a mechanism for applying political and financial pressure on the PiS government.
If the conditionality of the EU funds is now conditioned on other priorities imposed by the urgency of the context of the war in Ukraine, it will lead to a further erosion of the EU’s democratic credentials, too. The scope for political accommodations has long been exhausted.
Jacek KucharczykPresident of the Institute of Public Affairs, Warsaw
June 4 marks the anniversary of the historic 1989 “partially free” elections, which led to the demise of communist rule in Poland and paved the way for democratization of Central Europe. Thirty-four years later, on 4 June 2023, hundreds of thousands of Poles took to the streets to protest against the systematic dismantling of democracy by the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party and its allies. The process started immediately after the 2015 election, when the United Right coalition won a narrow majority of seats in parliament by annulling earlier appointments of judges to Poland’s Constitutional Court.
Gaining the control of this court was just the first step in the assault on the independent judiciary, free media, and civil society. The public radio and television were turned into a government mouthpiece, spewing party propaganda with the intensity that would put to shame communist spin doctors.
In the run-up to the parliamentary election in 2019, which gave PiS the second term in office, leading oppositional politicians had been put under surveillance with the infamous Pegasus software, and data thus obtained was leaked to the pro-government media. The PiS-led government modified the electoral code, so that the National Electoral Committee, a body charged with ensuring the integrity of the electoral process, was also placed under political control. The extrajudicial committee to investigate “Russian influence,” which was signed into law by President Andrzej Duda days before the massive oppositional protests, is one more item in the ruling party’s toolbox to be used against the opposition, media, and civic activists and thus to ensure its authoritarian grip on power.
Therefore, the 2023 election will—once again—at best “partially free” and its outcome will be crucial for the survival of democracy in Poland.
Denis MacShaneFormer UK minister for Europe
It is too easy to use the charge of endangering democracy when what is also at stake is a political fight to win votes. The giant Warsaw demonstration against illiberal measures proposed by the Law and Justice (PiS) government had in its front row Donald Tusk, a conservative politician, who having led Poland and been president of the EU Council also wants to come back to run Poland’s government again.
His policies were those of the discredited Davos elite—the ultra-liberal “enrichessez-vous” ideology of the educated business elites, which ignored the needs of lower-paid and insecure workers and citizens. The nationalist right gave voice to those who were excluded by Davos liberals in Britain with Brexit Tories, in France with Marine Le Pen, in Hungary with Viktor Orbán, and in Poland with PiS.
Most of the UK press blindly followed Brexit ideology and even today the BBC severely limits criticism of Brexit in its news outlet. Is Poland so very different from Fox News in America?
The sadness in Poland is that Kaczyński copies Putin in adopting measure based on hate and division, and a rejection of the necessity of democratic opposition and free media. But then so does Trump. I don’t think America has given up on democracy and I hope Poles survive the current PiS attacks on democracy.
Camino Mortera-MartinezHead of the Brussels office of the Centre for European Reform
Poland’s democracy is in danger. So is the place it should rightly occupy in the European Union, and the world.
On a recent trip to Warsaw, several experts told me that the so-called Lex Tusk had been the worst thing coming out of this government so far. This was surprising. With the government’s muzzle law, its ongoing conflict with Brussels, and the capturing of the judiciary, the bar was in hell. All around Europe, Polish citizens fear for their rights: their right to a fair trial; their right to choose who to love and what to do with their bodies; and now their right to speak freely without fear of being prosecuted; and, chiefly, their right to participate in free and democratic elections.
Brussels and Washington should stand up to protect our fellow European citizens. There should be no place in Europe and the West for autocracies, especially at a time when we are quite literally fighting one. We missed a chance to listen to Poland when we should have. Let us not make the same mistake again, and this time, pay close attention to what Poles are telling us, loud and clear.
John O’BrennanProfessor and Jean Monnet Chair of European integration at Maynooth University
Yes, Poland’s democracy is in real danger. When Law and Justice (PiS) came back to power in 2015, its leader Jaroslaw Kaczyński said that it was the intention of PiS to create “Budapest on the Vistula.” He was as good as his word in emulating Viktor Orbán’s defenestration of the rule of law.
The EU did very little to intervene until, belatedly, the European Commission began taking infringement cases to the Court of Justice. The introduction of a link between EU budgetary subvention and rule-of-law performance was a step in the right direction. The EU should, however, be doing much more to help Poland’s civil society resist these measures that thrash the rule of law and, in the process, delimit the space opposition parties have to operate.
I suspect that the autumn election will be free but not fair. We have seen this pattern repeatedly in Hungary and Poland, where the media landscape in particular is a vital tool of regime maintenance.
And although the recent march, which brought half a million people out to protest PiS, encourages the view of a unified opposition, we should not be over-enthusiastic about the possibility of PiS being dethroned in the autumn.
The coming together of hitherto divided opposition parties did not stop Viktor Orbán from another huge election victory in Hungary last year. Similarly, in Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan fought back against the odds to win again. So, any enthusiasm about the possibility of a defeat for Law and Justice should be tempered by the knowledge that, as the governing party, they hold most of the cards as Poland enters a critical electoral cycle.
Jacek Saryusz-WolskiMember of the European Parliament’s European Conservatives and Reformists Group and of Poland’s Law and Justice Party
Contrary to Judy’s introduction [in the invitation to respondents], democracy in Poland is vibrant and thriving. Claiming otherwise is an effect of disinformation and biased outlook. Upon rational inspection, what we observe in Poland is a paragon of democracy—we have a democratically elected government employing democratic procedures with full democratic mandate to deliver its electoral pledges to citizens.
The current Polish government has always prioritized the security of the state and citizens. Establishing a committee on Russian influence epitomizes a coherent policy addressing real threats to Poland. According to the poll published in May by the news platform Onet, which is an opposition-leaning media outlet, 43.4 percent of respondents said that such a committee is needed while 37.6 percent were against.
Therefore, one can see where the hysterical narrative about imperilled democracy comes from. For the Polish opposition it’s politically expedient to peddle such fake accusations to instrumentalize them in the forthcoming elections.
Finally, let me underline that the freedom of assembly is one of the cornerstones of a truly democratic state; would it be possible to organize a major anti-government demonstration in a country where democracy is in such a grave danger? Saying that democracy is in peril while fully enjoying its benefits is contradictory.
Eugeniusz SmolarMember of New Eastern Europe’s editorial board
Definitely yes!
The revolutionary goals of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party were stated by its leader Jaroslaw Kaczyński in 2016: “I would be willing to accept a slowdown in [the country’s] economic development if in turn I could push through my vision of Poland.”
State capture has been consistently implemented since 2015. Radical purges were carried out in all organs of power, including the military, the special services, and public administration. With a majority in parliament, PiS was able to change any law, implement any economic or social project or foreign policy without objections from the courts. The attack on the independence of the Constitutional Tribunal, the Supreme Court, and the entire judiciary would therefore seem irrational if it were not for the overriding objective: to guarantee power in the future. It is important that the subservient Supreme Court formally adjudicates the correctness of the parliamentary election.
By proclaiming Poland’s sovereignty in the narrowest sense PiS entered into conflict with the EU over judicial independence. It is risking ties with the United States and weakening Poland’s position, including in the region. For Kaczyński & co., this doesn’t matter. For the sake of retaining power, the real goal is to achieve full sovereignty in domestic politics that is not limited by the EU’s principles and laws.
And over several years, the authorities failed to find anything blameworthy in the behavior of former Polish prime minister Donald Tusk and his government. Hence the establishment of an extra-constitutional, extra-legal commission. It will play the role of police, prosecutors, and courts. Even if this kangaroo court will fail to prevent opposition leaders from participating in the elections, an arbitrary administrative decision of the commission will be able to prevent anyone from taking a seat as a member of parliament or from holding any public office. In this way, despite its expected defeat in the elections, PiS will be able to gain a majority in parliament and continue to govern.
So, we have been witnessing a coup d’état where the costs—and relations with allies—do not count. Poland’s democracy is in danger!
Monika SusVisiting professor at the Centre for International Security at the Hertie School, Berlin
Yes. Polish democracy has been under threat for almost a decade, ever since the right-wing Law and Justice party won the 2015 elections. The situation in Poland can be described by the well-known metaphor of the boiling frog. The democratic backsliding has been gradual, with the government taking over key state institutions such as the public media, limiting the independence of the judiciary, introducing very strict abortion laws, campaigning against the LGBT+ communities, changing school curricula to be more “patriotic,” feeding the public with anti-German and anti-EU propaganda through the state media, and restricting academic freedoms.
Russia’s war against Ukraine is, unfortunately, working in the government’s favor: Poland’s strong stance in support of Ukraine and the sense of moral superiority attributed to the fact that Polish warnings against Russian aggression proved to be accurate have distracted the West—and part of the Polish public—from the erosion of democracy.
Therefore, the number of people protesting against the policies of the current government on the anniversary of the free elections of June 4, 1989, surprised me. Will the opposition be able to win the autumn elections on this wave? I am not sure, because, after nearly a decade of PiS-led governments, we know one for sure: this party will go to any lengths of manipulation to ensure it stays in power.
Mirjana TomićSeminar director at the Forum for Journalism and Media (fjum), Vienna
Is there a red line that marks the transition from liberal to illiberal democracy and then to autocracy, or is it a slow process? Do the proclaimed EU values apply to all countries, or does tolerance for democratic deviations depend on geopolitical considerations?
Poland is a leading voice in supporting Ukraine against the Russian invasion. Some local politicians believe in their moral superiority in comparison to other European countries. How does one distinguish between war allies and value-allies?
Is Poland’s democracy in danger? Formally it is, from a Brussels perspective of the rule of law. Government meddling in numerous institutions, intolerance and hate speech, church influence, antifeminism, anti-LGBT policies, and total prohibition of abortion do not contribute to the promotion of democratic values.
Yet, the Polish media scene is diverse. During a recent visit to Poland, I asked a seasoned journalist: “Who would I vote for if I were Polish? I am liberal when it comes to social values, but I believe in a welfare state.” “If you believe in liberal values, you will vote for the Civic Platform, but if you believe in a welfare state, your choice would be PiS,” he explained.
Should one vote for values or for economic benefits and patriotism at the expense of non-democratic methods? Elections will show voters’ priorities.
Ivan VejvodaPermanent fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences (IWM), Vienna
Most certainly, but the People are fighting back.
The massive popular protest on June 4 led by opposition parties was a clear demonstration of what preserving and fighting for democracy means. The presence of Lech Wałęsa on the stage was an eerie reminder of the struggle for freedom and rights in Poland under communism, and the sacrifices and suffering it took to achieve the first institutions of democracy after 1989.
The undermining of the rule of law and the passing of the law establishing a committee with unbridled powers remind of the times of totalitarian rule in which individual rights and freedoms were curtailed.
It seems that Poland’s ruling party and leadership are engaged in a desperate power retention dynamic that is using the worst tools of autocratic rule.
As a member of the European Union and of NATO, their activities tread on every basic tenet of a liberal democratic institutional order. The EU in part bears responsibility for not having confronted this backsliding of democracy in one of its member states.
But key to confronting this danger will be the Polish people, and their voice in the streets and in the institutions and at the ballot box.
This is yet again proof that democracy and the transitions to democracy cannot be taken for granted. They have to be nurtured, safeguarded, and fought for every single day.
Barbara von Ow-FreytagBoard member at the Prague Civil Society Centre
Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party keeps eroding the country’s democracy for the sole purpose of staying in power. Like other autocrats, the PiS government is unhinging core democratic principles to perpetuate its capture of key state institutions. Poland’s best-known journalist, Adam Michnik, speaks of the “Putinization” of his country. Any Polish alignment with Putin’s script at a time of Russia’s full-fledged war against Ukraine is shameful, if not tragic. It comes at a time when Poland’s “return to Europe” is complete after a decades-long struggle to liberate itself from Moscow domination. It also comes when Warsaw is welcoming Ukrainian, Belarusian—and Russian—refugees seeking a political home in democratic Europe.
Most importantly, Poland’s anti-democratic vector threatens European unity at a critical moment. To defend Ukraine and stand up to Putin’s murderous war, Poland must look beyond military alignment with the United States. As a new front-line state, it also needs full support of its European allies, notably Germany. To tamper with a “legal Polexit” is irresponsible and deepens a democratic fault line in the West. It risks the security of Europe—and the security of Poland itself. It is time the United States drummed this into the PiS government—and the Polish opposition into its own society.
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