• Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Europe logoCarnegie lettermark logo
EUUkraine
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Rym Momtaz"
  ],
  "type": "commentary",
  "blog": "Strategic Europe",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Europe"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Europe",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Lebanon",
    "Middle East"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Military",
    "Foreign Policy",
    "Defense"
  ]
}
Strategic Europe logo

Source: Getty

Commentary
Strategic Europe

Game-Changing Support for Lebanon’s Army Is Europe’s Best Bet

The Lebanese Armed Forces have a critical role to play in bringing peace and stability to the Middle East. By scaling up assistance for the army, Europeans can effect change on the ground and make Lebanon a proof of concept for geopolitical Europe.

Link Copied
By Rym Momtaz
Published on Oct 29, 2024
Strategic Europe

Blog

Strategic Europe

Strategic Europe offers insightful analysis, fresh commentary, and concrete policy recommendations from some of Europe’s keenest international affairs observers.

Learn More

Strengthening the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) has never been more critical for peace and stability in the Middle East and Europe’s southern flank. But Lebanon’s allies are still struggling to deliver support at scale.

Meeting at the “International Conference in Support of Lebanon’s People and Sovereignty,” officials from Europe, the Arab world, and a handful of other countries successfully mobilized massive humanitarian aid and reinforced crucial diplomatic support for UNIFIL, the UN peacekeepers at the Lebanese-Israeli border. And yet, they didn’t pull together a transformational aid package for the Lebanese army.

The vital conference convened by France in Paris yielded $1 billion in pledged support, including $800 million for humanitarian needs—but only $200 million for the LAF.

While the humanitarian aid is critical and will provide urgent relief, if the LAF are not supercharged at turbo speed at this critical juncture of the struggling country’s history, the state of Lebanon is at serious risk of further collapse and fragmentation. It also faces the potential formation of new, more radical armed groups.

The LAF has to take control of southern Lebanon from the Iran-backed Lebanese armed group Hezbollah and thwart weapons smuggling from Syria while preventing the disintegration of civil peace as well as a potential migration crisis for Europe. To succeed in this mission, it needs financial support and procurement at a game-changing scale, which for now remains elusive.

Diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire in Lebanon are centered on exploring whether to adapt United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions and mandates to secure the border and prevent Hezbollah from further threatening Israel. States like France, Italy, Poland, and the UK can be more effective by unilaterally boosting their troop levels within UNIFIL as well as their rules of engagement in southern Lebanon, building on the LAF’s Land Border Regiments on the Syrian border and providing it with a procurement package that gives it a decisive operational advantage over Hezbollah.

This would increase European credibility with the main belligerents, Israel—and indirectly the United States—and Iran, provide a work-around a potential Russian veto at the UNSC, and present a less costly approach to resolving the conflict than risking the ripple effects of Lebanon’s total collapse, which grows likelier as Israeli aggression continues.

The Italian-led Military Technical Committee for Lebanon could be the main coordinating body, not just for bolstering the LAF in the south but also on the Syrian border. The committee can build on France’s leading holistic role, the UK-led land border regimen program, Poland and Slovenia’s beefed up diplomatic involvement, and the European Peace Facility already deployed in Lebanon.

To be sure, this cannot be effective without the Lebanese political class snapping out of its abdication of sovereignty and responsibility. A good place to start would be by declaring a unilateral ceasefire, committing to supporting the LAF’s mission and ensuring its weapons don’t end up in Hezbollah’s hands.

The €200 million pledged at the conference in Paris will certainly provide much-needed support. The LAF is still reeling from the historic financial crisis Lebanon has been enduring since 2019. It has relied on international assistance—including from Qatar and the United States—to feed its soldiers and provide fuel for their vehicles. Attrition has affected its most qualified elements, while the lower-ranking soldiers  work outside jobs to feed their families.

But it is a far cry from the pivotal plan to overhaul the capabilities of the LAF that Saudi Arabia and France had committed to in 2014. At the time, Saudi Arabia allocated $3 billion—the equivalent of the total amount of military aid the United States has provided Lebanon since—toward the procurement of French advanced weapons for the LAF, from CAESAR howitzers to refurbished helicopters outfitted with anti-tank missiles.

These would have transformed the balance of power between the LAF and Hezbollah, without threatening Israel’s military hegemony, which remains a top priority for many Western countries. But a political crisis between the then Hezbollah-dominated government and Saudi Arabia, as part of Saudi-Iranian tensions, scuttled the plan. Replicating it today would have the added bonus of strengthening the Gulf’s hand in its balancing game with Iran.

Despite this setback, and significant political and economic crises since, the LAF have managed to preserve their cohesiveness. They are resolutely NATO-centric, despite some recent Russian and Chinese aid, and, within their means, are an operationally capable force that can be trusted by international supporters, as French President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday.

The LAF’s leadership has more recently stood its ground in southern Lebanon despite taking direct fire from the Israeli military and suffering casualties. This has been crucial to show the Lebanese population that the state is willing to protect all its territory.

Through a British-led initiative, the LAF established four land border regiments to control the Syrian-Lebanese border and counter smuggling. While these have improved the situation, with seventy-five new watch towers, several forward operating bases as well as ISR capabilities, they do not cover a central area that constitutes an essential supply corridor for Hezbollah from Syria. That gap will need to be filled.

UNIFIL could even provide support as UNSC resolution 1701 allows it to operate outside the area South of the Litani upon the request of the Lebanese government.

Europeans could commit an additional 5,000 troops to UNIFIL, to bring the levels up from the current 10,000 to the maximum 15,000 allowed. They could also make the political decision to toughen the rules of engagement to allow more enforcement of the mandate.

All of the above are robust actions with immediate effect that Europeans can take independently of the United States. They have an opportunity to turn Lebanon into a proof of concept for geopolitical Europe.

Rym Momtaz
Editor in Chief, Strategic Europe
Rym Momtaz
MilitaryForeign PolicyDefenseLebanonMiddle East

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Strategic Europe

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Taking the Pulse: Can the EU Attract Foreign Investment and Reduce Dependencies?

    EU member states clash over how to boost the union’s competitiveness: Some want to favor European industries in public procurement, while others worry this could deter foreign investment. So, can the EU simultaneously attract global capital and reduce dependencies?

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz, ed.

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    To Survive, the EU Must Split

    Leaning into a multispeed Europe that includes the UK is the way Europeans don’t get relegated to suffering what they must, while the mighty United States and China do what they want.

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Europolis, Where Europe Ends

    A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outward. In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning.

      Thomas de Waal

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Europe Falls Behind in the South Caucasus Connectivity Race

    The EU lacks leadership and strategic planning in the South Caucasus, while the United States is leading the charge. To secure its geopolitical interests, Brussels must invest in new connectivity for the region.

      Zaur Shiriyev

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Taking the Pulse: Is It Time for Europe to Reengage With Belarus?

    In return for a trade deal and the release of political prisoners, the United States has lifted sanctions on Belarus, breaking the previous Western policy consensus. Should Europeans follow suit, using their leverage to extract concessions from Lukashenko, or continue to isolate a key Kremlin ally?

      Thomas de Waal, ed.

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
Carnegie Europe logo, white
Rue du Congrès, 151000 Brussels, Belgium
  • Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
  • Projects
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Gender Equality Plan
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.