Moscow prefers to ignore occasional backsliding by its ‘Serbian friends’ as it sees the relationship with Belgrade as crucial to sustaining the semblance of Russian influence in the Balkans.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has left a group of “in-between” European countries more vulnerable and insecure than ever before. This arc of instability spans from the South Caucasus through Moldova to the Western Balkans.

Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia are caught in between Russia and the EU, building ties with the latter even as the former seeks to maintain influence there and deter the West.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday will be inaugurated to another six-year term. Most European Union countries are boycotting the ceremony.

Like the Soviet one that preceded it, his system is always on the brink of collapse.

By solving a Russian domestic crisis, the Belarusian leader has effectively joined the ranks of Russian grandees vying for Putin’s favor by eliminating irritating problems that could distract the president from his high-stakes geopolitical machinations.

Regardless of how worn-out Russians may be, therefore, Putin will stick to his selective perception of reality, looking for reasons for and ways to further escalate his addictive crusade against the current world order.

Without the assistance of local actors, Russian influence in the Western Balkans would disappear overnight. But the opposite is also true. As long as local politicians can capitalize on invoking Moscow’s long shadow, Russia will remain a salient part of the Balkan landscape.

Given how thoroughly Ukraine has overshadowed all other Russian foreign policy objectives, it seems unlikely that Moscow would embark on another risky undertaking with unclear prospects in the Western Balkans.

The scandal has helped both countries to gain the kind of publicity they strived for without damaging their relationship.