Two recent high-profile international gatherings—the Global Refugee Forum (GRF) and the twenty-eighth United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28)—have highlighted how global dynamics are creating new and increasingly complex patterns of human mobility. These dynamics include a steady increase in armed conflict and violence, a resurgence of great power rivalry, intensifying effects of climate change, economic stagnation amid inflation and the lingering effects of the coronavirus pandemic, and the steady rise of populism and authoritarianism. At the same time, in the United States and other developed countries, rapidly aging populations and persistent labor shortages are increasing demand for immigration. As the GRF and COP28 made clear, these trends urgently require new policy responses and frameworks.
But in the absence of comprehensive immigration reform in Washington—and as President Joe Biden’s administration considers Republicans’ demands for new border restrictions—what do these domestic and international trends mean for the future of U.S. immigration policy and U.S. geopolitical standing more generally? What do policymakers at the federal, state, and local level need to know to effectively manage migration and to ensure positive outcomes? Answering these questions will require a deeper understanding of four areas of immigration reform.
Creating Safe and Legal Pathways for Migration
From remittances to innovation to workforce development, migration can offer substantial benefits—for migrants, their sending communities, and receiving societies. U.S. cities that attract large numbers of migrants, such as Nashville and Minneapolis, have booming economies, lower levels of population decline, and greater labor force participation and entrepreneurship. Many Americans have taken notice. Even though public support for immigration has waned in recent years, a vast majority of people in the United States still see immigration as a good thing for the country. In California, for example, a recent survey found that 61 percent of people believe immigrants contribute to the state and national economy.
However, the discourse surrounding migration remains mired in controversy, shadowed by perceptions that migrants displace host citizens in job markets, excessively depend on welfare programs, and fail to actively engage with their local communities. There is significant evidence refuting these ideas. We also know that restrictive immigration policies often do not stop migration; rather, they exacerbate the associated risks by compelling individuals to resort to precarious, “irregular” pathways. This fact underscores the critical role migration plays as a livelihood and adaptation strategy that helps people cope with deteriorating economic, environmental, or political conditions.
Enhancing and expanding authorized migration pathways to the United States is therefore pivotal, particularly in light of greater curbs on access to asylum. Recent reforms to the U.S. H1B visa lottery system, which includes a limited expansion of application criteria for students and professionals, appear promising. The expansion of legal pathways through humanitarian parole programs for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans seems to have contributed to a decline, at least temporarily, in unauthorized crossings along the U.S. southern border. While limited—as applicants are required to have a U.S. sponsor and must enter the country through a designated port of entry—these parole programs have allowed more than 240,000 individuals to temporarily stay and work in the United States.
Facilitating Integration
While the ongoing debate over border security focuses on who should be allowed to enter the United States, more than 40 million individuals have already settled in the country—many of them without the necessary tools to successfully integrate. Refugees, asylum-seekers, and other migrants often face particular challenges in accessing services and finding affordable housing amid a nationwide shortage. American cities are at the front line of integrating refugees, yet some, struggling to find a permanent solution to housing shortages, have resorted to paying for transportation to move migrants to other parts of the country.
Similarly, U.S. policies limit new arrivals from accessing employment opportunities. Asylum-seekers, who currently wait years for decisions on their cases, generally are not permitted to work until six months after arrival, with considerable effects on local economies. In September, New York business leaders, faced with severe labor shortages, asked the Biden administration for more federal aid and expedited work permits for asylum-seekers. Part of the motivation was that granting asylum-seekers the ability to work would enable them to secure their own housing, alleviating the strain on local and state governments.
To promote other policies and programs that can help facilitate the integration of newcomers, the reestablishment of the White House Task Force on New Americans in 2022 was a critical development. The task force has pledged to provide consultation on health, education, job training, language acquisition, and financial aid to U.S. immigrants.
Expanding Resettlement Capacity
Rising numbers of refugees around the world call for an urgent expansion of U.S. resettlement efforts, which were dramatically curtailed under former president Donald Trump’s administration. The Biden administration’s use of humanitarian parole provided protection to tens of thousands of people fleeing conflict in Ukraine and Afghanistan. Other expansions have included new cosponsorship and private sponsorship models, such as the U.S. Welcome Corps and the Welcome Corps on Campus, which encourage U.S. residents and universities to sponsor refugees. These models have the potential to both expand the United States’ resettlement capacity and help facilitate the social integration of refugees into host communities.
Yet more progress is needed. Though resettlement capacity will need to grow in order to meet the needs of new refugees, the success of resettling those from Afghanistan and Ukraine demonstrates that—if it chooses to—the U.S. government can mobilize considerable resources to engage in large-scale asylum processing and resettlement within a short period of time.
Changing Narratives in Host Communities
Harmful and dehumanizing narratives surrounding migration have been on the rise in many countries. These narratives frequently use migrants as scapegoats for complex societal issues and anxieties, often driven by political or financial interests. For immigration policy to be successful, it is of critical importance to correct misconceptions about migrants and refugees, while promoting awareness about existing immigration policies.
These goals, however urgent, are difficult to achieve. Comprehensive immigration reform invites more questions than answers. Can meaningful progress be made? Is narrative-change a bottom-up process or a top-down one? Will new legal avenues be sustainable? Can AI or other technologies help expand refugee resettlement? Will any of these reforms survive multiple U.S. administrations? More research on these immigration issues is needed to face the new and emerging challenges of an increasingly turbulent world.
This commentary was drafted in conversation with Ian Klaus and Marissa Jordan.