Putin’s war on Ukraine marks the end of the near abroad—the idea that Russia enjoys a special status in much of the post-Soviet space. But while Russia’s neighbors are seeking greater independence, they are not necessarily turning West.
Turkish President Erdogan has long played Russia and Ukraine against each other, squeezing out the best deal for himself. However, as the fighting intensifies and the West ratchets up the pressure on Vladimir Putin, Ankara is under pressure to finally pick a side.
Belarus is instrumental in Russia’s ongoing military attack on Ukraine. Developments since the 2020 rigged election in Belarus and the forthcoming changes to its constitution reflect Lukashenko’s growing dependence on Putin.*
Since October 2020, the European Union has gradually extended its sanctions against Belarus. Aimed to change the calculations and dynamics within the ruling elite, sanctions are now perceived as less important by the Belarusian people given the authoritarian regime's consolidation of power.
The EU has been slow and irresolute in stopping Minsk from using migrants as a hybrid weapon to weaken the bloc. A migration and asylum policy—not a fortress Europe—is the answer.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s initial anti-lockdown and anti-vaccine approach to the pandemic has caused a significant decline in his credibility. While his stance has since softened, the erosion of trust in government institutions has made it more difficult to stem the virus’ spread.
Among Belarusians, trust in the political elite remains low while the perceived effectiveness of EU sanctions is decreasing. The union must keep the latter in mind when assessing its strategy toward the country.
