The Debate on “Sequencing”

{
  "authors": [
    "Thomas Carothers"
  ],
  "type": "other",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "Democracy and Governance"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "democracy",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "DCG",
  "programs": [
    "Democracy, Conflict, and Governance",
    "Middle East"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "North America",
    "Middle East",
    "China"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform",
    "Democracy",
    "Security",
    "Foreign Policy"
  ]
}

Other

The Debate on “Sequencing”

By Thomas Carothers

Published on Jul 17, 2007

Source: Journal of Democracy

The July 2007 issue of Journal of Democracy showcases a debate on Thomas Carothers’ “The ‘Sequencing’ Fallacy” featuring Edward Mansfield, Jack Snyder, Francis Fukuyama, Sheri Berman, and Carothers. Mansfield and Snyder reassert their view that rapid democratization can be a dangerous recipe for civil or interstate violence. Carothers responds by explaining that Mansfield and Snyder mischaracterize his analysis while failing to address his central assertions: authoritarianism is inherently at odds with democratic state-building and gradually introducing democratic reforms shows greater promise than putting off democracy indefinitely. Fukuyama highlights the tension between violent state-building and the creation of liberal institutions. Rejecting the notion that democratization must follow any particular sequence, Berman emphasizes that today’s successful democracies each followed a unique –and often tumultuous– path.

Click on PDF icon above to read full debate.

About the Author

Thomas Carothers

Harvey V. Fineberg Chair for Democracy Studies; Director, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program

Thomas Carothers, director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, is a leading expert on comparative democratization and international support for democracy.

Recent Work

Paper
The Effects of U.S. Democratic Backsliding on U.S. Power
- Thomas Carothers
Paper
Post-U.S. International Democracy Support: Aspiration in Search of Substance
- Richard Youngs, Thomas Carothers

Political Reform Democracy Security Foreign Policy North America Middle East China

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Russia Is Exporting Its Fuel Crisis to Central Asia
When faced with fuel shortages in the past, Central Asian governments could always count on additional supplies from Moscow. That safety net no longer exists.
Galiya Ibragimova
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Russia Is Approaching a Political Crossroads
Two divergent trends—Putin’s hardline vision of how to prosecute the war in Ukraine, and a growing desire for change in Russia—could tear the regime apart.
Tatiana Stanovaya
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Control Above Reform: What’s Behind Ukraine’s Government and Security Reshuffle?
Ultimately, Zelensky sided neither with the reform camp nor with the military establishment as such, but with political control.
Balázs Jarábik
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
Where Are President Tokayev’s Political Reforms Leading Kazakhstan?
Tokayev’s predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, outlined arrangements for a power transition too soon and in too much detail, ultimately losing control over the process. Tokayev is determined not to meet the same fate.
Temur Umarov
Commentary
Carnegie Politika
What Should We Take From Andrey Melnichenko’s Essay in the Economist?
Andrey Melnichenko’s essay offers no answer to the fundamental question of how, under any kind of negotiated settlement, Europe can protect itself from the Russian ressentiment that is inevitable in all scenarios except for an outright victory for Putin.
Leonid Bershidsky

The Debate on “Sequencing”

More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Russia Is Exporting Its Fuel Crisis to Central Asia

When faced with fuel shortages in the past, Central Asian governments could always count on additional supplies from Moscow. That safety net no longer exists.

Galiya Ibragimova

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Russia Is Approaching a Political Crossroads

Two divergent trends—Putin’s hardline vision of how to prosecute the war in Ukraine, and a growing desire for change in Russia—could tear the regime apart.

Tatiana Stanovaya

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Control Above Reform: What’s Behind Ukraine’s Government and Security Reshuffle?

Ultimately, Zelensky sided neither with the reform camp nor with the military establishment as such, but with political control.

Balázs Jarábik

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

Where Are President Tokayev’s Political Reforms Leading Kazakhstan?

Tokayev’s predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, outlined arrangements for a power transition too soon and in too much detail, ultimately losing control over the process. Tokayev is determined not to meet the same fate.

Temur Umarov

Commentary

Carnegie Politika

What Should We Take From Andrey Melnichenko’s Essay in the Economist?

Andrey Melnichenko’s essay offers no answer to the fundamental question of how, under any kind of negotiated settlement, Europe can protect itself from the Russian ressentiment that is inevitable in all scenarios except for an outright victory for Putin.

Leonid Bershidsky