Commentary
Trump has promised Belarus a massive potash deal. But Minsk is seeking something greater: restored Western transit and greater room for maneuver from Russia.
Balázs Jarábik
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Source: Getty
In The Media
The Decline of U.S. Hegemony: Regaining International Consent
Through various policies of the Bush administration, the United States lost a considerable amount of international authority. Amidst a system of rising powers, this could have grave consequences for global stability. However, the future depends on the Obama administration’s efforts to regain American authority.
By Kevin Slaten
Published on Mar 15, 2009
Source: The Journal of Politics & International Affairs
This essay argues that during the Clinton administration, the U.S. possessed a significant amount of authority over most NATO countries – enough authority that America lead hegemony among those states – and those states consented to American actions in international relations. Additionally, the study shows that this authority declined significantly due to policy changes during the Bush administration.
In hegemony, the hegemon – the United States – and its subordinates are endowed with certain role expectations; expectations that are held by subordinates that consent to the hegemon’s authority and, likewise, expectations that are projected by the hegemon onto subordinates. The more that subordinate states conform to role expectations, the stronger the hegemony. Two methodologies are used to measure the role conformity among various states during the 1990’s and 2000’s. The first method uses United Nations General Assembly voting data to compare the voting record of the U.S. against other states and groups of states. Voting similarly to the United States is a subordinate role expectation, so the more a state votes with America, the more that state is conforming to the subordinate role expectation. The second method looks at cross-national attitude surveys, which reflect various public’s consent for and perception of American authority; strong consent for and positive perception of American authority is expected in the case of hegemony. As mentioned, attitudes have recently taken a large unfavorable downturn for the United States among NATO nations.
After examining the results of both of these measures, some possible outcomes of a system of declining hegemony are discussed from differing theoretical perspectives. The essay concludes with a normative argument pertaining to what the United States’ policy ought to be amidst a system of declining hegemony. Ultimately, the interests of America as well as the global community are best served by a policy that seeks to regain international consent.
The author's views expressed in this article are his own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Carnegie Endowment.
About the Author
Kevin Slaten
Former Junior Fellow, China Program
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
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