• Research
  • Politika
  • About
Carnegie Russia Eurasia center logoCarnegie lettermark logo
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Marina Ottaway"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [
    "Arab Awakening"
  ],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "MEP",
  "programs": [
    "Middle East"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "Middle East",
    "North Africa",
    "Egypt",
    "Tunisia"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

In The Media

The Arab Spring and Its Counterrevolutionaries

Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are likely to have little influence over the final outcome of the Arab Spring. Instead, the course of political transformation across the Middle East will be determined by domestic actors.

Link Copied
By Marina Ottaway
Published on Jun 11, 2012

Source: International Relations and Security Network

Although there has been dramatic change in the region over the course of the past year and a half, “the Arab world is still experiencing transformations that are at best incomplete,” noted Carnegie's Marina Ottaway, speaking with the International Relations and Security Network. She argued that there are still significant remnants of the old regimes working in Egypt and Tunisia to secure their influence and interests.

Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are all important components of the geopolitical configuration of the region and have different views on the Arab uprisings, Ottaway continued. Each of these countries has been supportive of uprisings in some countries and wary of revolts in others. Despite their strength and influence in the region Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey “will not be the main factor in shaping the outcome of the Arab uprisings. These are domestic political battles and foreign actors will only have a marginal impact in what happens in countries in transition in the Arab world,” concluded Ottaway.

About the Author

Marina Ottaway

Former Senior Associate, Middle East Program

Before joining the Endowment, Ottaway carried out research in Africa and in the Middle East for many years and taught at the University of Addis Ababa, the University of Zambia, the American University in Cairo, and the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa.

    Recent Work

  • Article
    Reactions to the Syrian National Initiative

      Marina Ottaway, Omar Hossino

  • Article
    Slow Return to Normal Politics in Egypt

      Marina Ottaway

Marina Ottaway
Former Senior Associate, Middle East Program
Marina Ottaway
Political ReformMiddle EastNorth AfricaEgyptTunisia

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    The Kremlin Is Destroying Its Own System of Coerced Voting

    The use of technology to mobilize Russians to vote—a system tied to the relative material well-being of the electorate, its high dependence on the state, and a far-reaching system of digital control—is breaking down.

      Andrey Pertsev

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Notes From Kyiv: Is Ukraine Preparing for Elections?

    As discussions about settlement and elections move from speculation to preparation, Kyiv will have to manage not only the battlefield, but also the terms of political transition. The thaw will not resolve underlying tensions; it will only expose them more clearly.

      Balázs Jarábik

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Once Neutral on the Ukraine War, Arab States Increasingly Favor Moscow

    Disillusioned with the West over Gaza, Arab countries are not only trading more with Russia; they are also more willing to criticize Kyiv.  

      Ruslan Suleymanov

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    Where Does the Split in the Ruling Tandem Leave Kyrgyzstan?

    Despite its reputation as an island of democracy in Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan appears to be on the brink of becoming a personalist autocracy.

      Temur Umarov

  • Commentary
    Carnegie Politika
    In Uzbekistan, the President’s Daughter Is Now His Second-in-Command

    Having failed to build a team that he can fully trust or establish strong state institutions, Mirziyoyev has become reliant on his family.

      Galiya Ibragimova

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Carnegie Russia Eurasia logo, white
  • Research
  • Politika
  • About
  • Experts
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Privacy
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.