Martha Brill Olcott
Central Asia’s Second Chance
Early hopes for a democratic transition in Central Asia after the fall of the Soviet Union were dashed, but new hope was raised as the global community re-engaged with Central Asia in the wake of 9/11. Martha Brill Olcott explains how the region squandered its "second chance," and what might happen next.
Source: Washington

A leading authority on Central Asia offers a sweeping review of the region’s path from independence to the post-9/11 world. The first decade of independence was disappointing for those who envisioned a straightforward transition from Soviet republics to independent states with market economies and democratic political systems. Leaders excused political failures by pointing to security risks, including the presence of terrorist training camps in Afghanistan.
The situation changed dramatically after 9/11: the camps were largely destroyed and the United States introduced a military presence. More importantly, the international community engaged with these states, to give them a "second chance" to address social and economic problems. But neither the aid-givers nor recipients were willing to approach problems in new ways. Now, terrorists groups are once again making their presence felt, and some states may be becoming global security risks. The book explores how the region squandered its second chance and what might happen next.
About the Author
Martha Brill Olcott, is senior associate in the Russian and Eurasian Program at the Carnegie Endowment. She specializes in the problems of transitions in Central Asia and the Caucasus as well as the security challenges in the Caspian region more generally. Recent publications include Kazakhstan: Unfulfilled Promise (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2002), Preventing New Afghanistans: A Regional Strategy for Reconstruction (Carnegie Endowment Policy Brief No. 11) and Getting It Wrong: Regional Cooperation and the Commonwealth of Independent States and Russia After Communism (Carnegie Endowment, 1999).
Advance Praise
"Olcott has established herself as one of the leading US experts on Central Asia."
—Journal of Peace Research
About the Author
Former Senior Associate, Russia and Eurasia Program and, Co-director, al-Farabi Carnegie Program on Central Asia
Olcott is professor emerita at Colgate University, having taught political science there from 1974 to 2002. Prior to her work at the endowment, Olcott served as a special consultant to former secretary of state Lawrence Eagleburger.
- After Crimea: Will Kazakhstan be Next in Putin’s Reintegration Project?In The Media
- China’s Unmatched Influence in Central AsiaArticle
Martha Brill Olcott
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- Conspiracy Theories Are Eclipsing the Real Dangers of Russia’s Messaging App MaxCommentary
The internet is awash not only with instructions from digital security experts, but also with urban legends and conspiracy theories that divert attention away from the real dangers of Max.
David Frenkel
- Blocking of Telegram App Sparks Rare Public Rift Among Russia’s ElitesCommentary
The prospect of a total block on Russia’s most popular messaging app has sparked disagreement between the regime’s political managers and its security agencies.
Andrey Pertsev
- The Afghanistan–Pakistan War Poses Awkward Questions for RussiaCommentary
Not only does the fighting jeopardize regional security, it undermines Russian attempts to promote alternatives to the Western-dominated world order.
Ruslan Suleymanov
- After Ilia II: What Will a New Patriarch Mean for Georgia?Commentary
The front-runner to succeed Ilia II, Metropolitan Shio, is prone to harsh anti-Western rhetoric and frequent criticism of “liberal ideologies” that he claims threaten the Georgian state. This raises fears that under his leadership the Georgian Orthodox Church will lose its unifying role and become an instrument of ultraconservative ideology.
Bashir Kitachaev
- What the Russian Energy Sector Stands to Gain From War in the Middle EastCommentary
The future trajectory of the U.S.-Iran war remains uncertain, but its impact on global energy trade flows and ties will be far-reaching. Moscow is likely to become a key beneficiary of these changes; the crisis in the Gulf also strengthens Russia’s hand in its relationships with China and India, where advantages might prove more durable.
Sergey Vakulenko