Carnegie Africa Program: 2025 in Review
The Carnegie Africa Program reflects on an eventful year for Africa and the world.
December 2025
Dear friends,
As 2025 draws to a close, we at the Carnegie Africa Program are reflecting on a year of change.
The year began with the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term—a moment that triggered a deep remaking of the global policy environment. In the lead-up to inauguration day, we joined other experts in forecasting what a Trump 2.0 might mean for Africa’s external relations and how this new administration could reshape the U.S.-Africa relationship. Shortly after his inauguration, forty-four executive orders and memos quickly clarified the administration’s priorities, reoriented U.S. foreign assistance programs, and prompted African countries to re-evaluate their financing and collaboration models across health, agriculture and commercial sectors. Beyond Washington, the continent received increased interest from other global players like Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, and Russia, making clear that African leaders will need to deftly navigate geopolitical trigger points for the foreseeable future.
Speaking of geopolitical trigger points, 2025 saw a major increase in attention paid to Africa’s critical minerals both on the continent and across the world. In February, the Carnegie Africa Program convened technical experts and representatives from the U.S. and African governmental agencies, the private sector, and NGOs for a private roundtable at the 2025 Investing in African Mining Indaba. Insights from this session informed a flagship publication that makes the case for U.S.-African partnership in the mining sector that is built on a foundation of technical exchange, capacity building, and mutual benefit for the U.S. and African countries. With shifting priorities in Washington, partnerships must now speak directly to the Trump administration’s foreign policy and commercial objectives. The tensions between the DRC and Rwanda underscore how critical mineral supply chains sit at the heart of emerging geopolitical competitions. As nonresident scholar C. Geraud Neema observed while speaking with DW News, “[The DRC’s offer of critical minerals access] is dovetailing into China-U.S. competition over critical minerals.” Neema continued to track developments on this score through the announcement of a peace deal earlier this month—despite continued fighting on the ground—and assessed its potential for a viable partnership framework through which the U.S. can bolster its supply of critical minerals. Still, as the world eyes Africa’s critical minerals to power their competing visions for the future, former nonresident scholar Folashadé Soulé and her co-authors made clear in their paper that if critical minerals are going to benefit local communities, impacts can’t only be measured on a global scale. Instead, African countries, private corporations, and civil society actors must agree on and enforce mining standards, ensure fair revenue sharing, boost local participation in the industry, and support displaced livelihoods.
In line with the “America First” rhetoric that brought President Trump back to power, the U.S.-Africa economic relationship was drastically reshaped this year by a new U.S. tariff framework and uncertainty surrounding the now expired African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Following the announcement of the “Liberation Day” tariffs in April, African countries scrambled to respond, with many attempting to directly deal with the United States. Amid this recalibration, nonresident scholar Kholofelo Kugler and former junior fellow Tani Washington released a major paper assessing Côte d’Ivoire’s export prospects and offered recommendations for African countries seeking to increase their own volume of exports and for U.S. lawmakers thinking about the future of U.S.-Africa trade. Following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, legislation to revive AGOA was introduced and cleared the first congressional hurdle in the House. As the pressure to renew AGOA ramps up, we’ll be keeping an eye on a major lobbying push from international trade associations and African country representatives.
To hear more about the administration’s vision for the future of the U.S.-Africa economic relationship, we hosted Ambassador Troy Fitrell, then senior bureau official at the Bureau of African Affairs, for a fireside chat. During the discussion, he elaborated on the recently unveiled U.S. commercial diplomacy strategy for Africa, reaffirmed the U.S.’s commitment to infrastructure investment projects like the Lobito Corridor, and hinted at the potential for a new U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit. Though the summit has since been indefinitely delayed, Africa Program nonresident scholar Ramsey Day made the case that an event bringing together U.S. and African leaders for commercial discussions could act as a potential launch-point for a new era of U.S.-Africa relations.
Intertwined with discussions on the U.S.-Africa economic relationship was Africa’s digital acceleration amidst the global AI race. At the heart of our work on Africa’s digital transformation is the Africa Technology Policy Tracker (AfTech), the first one-stop shop repository of the continent’s digital policy documents, legislation, and strategies. Following the successful launch of the platform last December, we drew on AfTech’s insights to bring a better understanding of how African countries are developing their AI governance. In April, we hosted a ministerial panel at the inaugural Global AI Summit in Rwanda, and continued discussions in Washington, D.C that examined how the U.S. can partner with African countries on AI for mutual benefit—be on the lookout for our publication on this in early 2026. This year also saw the release of DeepSeek R1, a moment that, as research analyst Sylvester Quansah observed, made clear that African countries have options when it comes to AI. Finally, as part of a cross-Carnegie initiative, fellow Jane Munga demonstrated the vulnerability and fragility of Africa’s undersea internet cables and underscored the need for a robust, resilient approach to for this foundational digital infrastructure.
It’s been a year of change as well for the Africa Program. We were thrilled to begin working with new Carnegie scholar Henok Asmelash, as well as deepen work with Frances Brown, Frederic Wehrey, and Sarah Yerkes. We look forward to further highlighting their work—along with the rest of the program’s work—when we return after the holiday season. In the meantime, please follow us on LinkedIn, and on X @AfricaCarnegie.
We at the Carnegie Africa Program wish you a restful and restorative holiday season and look forward to reconnecting in the new year.
Sincerely,
The Carnegie Africa Program
Features
99% of the Internet Runs Through These Cables and They're at Risk
How subsea cable security is evolving across Africa, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
By Erik Brown, Jane Munga, Sophia Besch, and Elina Noor
The Just Energy Transition Partnership Crossroads
The members of each existing JETP agreement must choose a highest priority: emissions mitigation or energy expansion.
By Alexander Csanadi and Daniel Helmeci
Côte d'Ivoire's Utilization of AGOA Preferences: Challenges and Opportunities
Despite Côte d’Ivoire’s strong export potential, its utilization of AGOA preferences has been limited; even if AGOA is not re-authorized, its experience offers important lessons for stakeholders aiming to expand trade.
By Kholofelo Kugler and Tani Washington
Understanding Africa's AI Governance Landscape: Insights From Policy Practice and Dialogue
In Africa, AI has the potential to grow the continent’s economy by an estimated $2.9 to 4.8 billion by 2030. In recognition of the AI promise, African stakeholders are increasingly positioning themselves to expedite AI adoption and realize its benefits.
By Jane Munga and Sylvester Quansah
Can Critical Mineral Deals Benefit Local Communities? Insights From Ghana's Lithium Project
African governments have been endeavoring to benefit from the clean energy transition by being more than mere suppliers of raw critical minerals. Ghana’s ongoing experience in trying to capture and domesticate segments of the lithium value chain offers valuable insights regarding potential benefits to local communities.
By Folashadé Soulé, Mawuenyega Makafui Butu, and Emmanuel Amoah-Darkwah
Developments on Our Radar
G20 Summit boycotted by US closes in South Africa [BBC]
US to host meeting of G20 officials without South Africa's participation, sources say [Reuters]
Ethiopia to host COP32 as Nigeria backs down [The Africa Report]
Sudan's top general rejects US-led ceasefire proposal, calling it 'the worst yet' [AP News]
Skepticism grows over DR Congo-Rwanda peace deal [DW News]
Professional Development Opportunities
African Development Bank Young Professionals Program [application]
Harry Frank Guggenheim African Fellow Awards [application]
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.