After Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Eastern Europe successfully ended its dependence on Russian natural gas. To ensure the region’s energy security, the EU must continue to diversify its supplies and invest in LNG infrastructure across the continent.

The Trump administration’s effort to reshape the global trading system and reset overseas security commitments is creating an historic inflection point.  Less clear is how far China will be able to capitalize on these dynamics.

Forecasting—that is, estimating the probability of specified events’ occurring—can contribute to efforts to better understand and address the challenge of managing escalation.