A More Balanced View of Asia's Rise

{
  "authors": [
    "Minxin Pei"
  ],
  "type": "legacyinthemedia",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "asia",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "AP",
  "programs": [
    "Asia"
  ],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "United States",
    "South Asia",
    "India",
    "East Asia",
    "China"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform",
    "Economy",
    "Foreign Policy"
  ]
}

In The Media

A More Balanced View of Asia's Rise

Fears about Asia’s rise warrant a more balanced and critical look. China and India's international standing should not be overstated because both face serious economic and social constraints that will limit their growth.

By Minxin Pei

Published on Aug 13, 2009

Source: WBUR Radio Here and Now

The alarm about the rise of Asia and the decline of America are largely exaggerated. A more balanced and critical look at trends suggests that Asian countries, particularly China and India, are not poised to take over the reigns of world leadership anytime soon. Even at current economic growth rates, average per capita income in Asia is not expected to reach U.S. levels for nearly 80 years. Asian countries also lack well-developed understanding and support for key values such as multilateralism, human rights, and other international public goods that define the contemporary world order. These failings, combined with a relative lack of innovation, internal challenges to national cohesion, and problems posed by environmental degradation, suggest Asia will continue to face many constraints and its rise should not be overstated by the West.

About the Author

Minxin Pei

Former Adjunct Senior Associate, Asia Program

Pei is Tom and Margot Pritzker ‘72 Professor of Government and the director of the Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies at Claremont McKenna College.

Recent Work

In The Media
How China Can Avoid the Next Conflict
- Minxin Pei
In The Media
Small Change
- Minxin Pei

Political Reform Economy Foreign Policy United States South Asia India East Asia China

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Europe

Commentary
Strategic Europe
Letter from the Editor: Europe Takes Two Steps Forward But One Step Back
As we close out another season of Strategic Europe, it is worth taking stock of the deep shifts underway.
Rym Momtaz
Paper
Assessing Information Ecosystems: How Governments Can Get Ahead of Hybrid Threats
The hybrid warfare landscape is evolving rapidly, leaving policymakers without clear strategies. To better inform their work in addressing emerging challenges, governments must dig deeper into the underlying dynamics at play.
Raluca Csernatoni, Alicia Wanless
Commentary
Strategic Europe
Taking the Pulse: Are the EU’s Watered-Down Russia Sanctions Better than None?
The EU had to compromise to adopt a twenty-first sanctions package against Russia, exposing growing cracks in the union’s resolve. Is this latest, weaker round worth it to keep pressure on Moscow?
Rym Momtaz, ed.
Commentary
Strategic Europe
Why Europe Must Take Charge of its Russia Diplomacy Now
Trump is distracted and Ukraine wants Europe to step up. The continent’s leaders must find their voice and assert it in talks with Russia.
Alissa de Carbonnel
Commentary
Strategic Europe
Why Russia Could Escalate Hybrid Warfare Against Europe
Mounting economic strain and battlefield losses will not necessarily make the Kremlin less dangerous. They could instead push Moscow toward a more aggressive hybrid campaign designed to test NATO’s Eastern flank, exploit allied hesitation, and fracture European resolve.
Maksym Beznosiuk

More Work from Carnegie Europe

Commentary

Strategic Europe

Letter from the Editor: Europe Takes Two Steps Forward But One Step Back

As we close out another season of Strategic Europe, it is worth taking stock of the deep shifts underway.

Rym Momtaz

Paper

Assessing Information Ecosystems: How Governments Can Get Ahead of Hybrid Threats

The hybrid warfare landscape is evolving rapidly, leaving policymakers without clear strategies. To better inform their work in addressing emerging challenges, governments must dig deeper into the underlying dynamics at play.

Raluca Csernatoni, Alicia Wanless

Commentary

Strategic Europe

Taking the Pulse: Are the EU’s Watered-Down Russia Sanctions Better than None?

The EU had to compromise to adopt a twenty-first sanctions package against Russia, exposing growing cracks in the union’s resolve. Is this latest, weaker round worth it to keep pressure on Moscow?

Rym Momtaz, ed.

Commentary

Strategic Europe

Why Europe Must Take Charge of its Russia Diplomacy Now

Trump is distracted and Ukraine wants Europe to step up. The continent’s leaders must find their voice and assert it in talks with Russia.

Alissa de Carbonnel

Commentary

Strategic Europe

Why Russia Could Escalate Hybrid Warfare Against Europe

Mounting economic strain and battlefield losses will not necessarily make the Kremlin less dangerous. They could instead push Moscow toward a more aggressive hybrid campaign designed to test NATO’s Eastern flank, exploit allied hesitation, and fracture European resolve.

Maksym Beznosiuk