Paper
Matthew Rojansky
{
"authors": [
"Matthew Rojansky"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "russia",
"programs": [
"Russia and Eurasia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Caucasus",
"Russia"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
Is Putin's Victory Guaranteed?
It is not certain that Putin will win the elections on Sunday, but it is very likely. If Putin is elected, he will face implications in Russia's domestic policy and its relationship with the United States.
Published on Mar 2, 2012
Source: CTV (Canada)
- Medvedev: Putin has made promises that Medvedev will be Prime Minister after the elections. However, “whether Medvedev will stay as Prime Minister I think is unlikely,” said Rojansky, adding that “in some ways, he is the perfect fall guy down the road.”
- Domestic Reforms: Given the extensive protests against Putin’s rule, and the likelihood of renewed protests after the election, “Putin is going to do what he has to do,” said Rojansky. There will be a veneer of modernization and Putin will have to make concessions to some demands, such as improving modern technology and creating more opportunities for IT and high-tech jobs. However, “Putin cannot adjust the basic bargain he has made with the oligarchs and Russia’s elite,” warned Rojansky. "If he starts to shake up that deal, those guys will turn against him.”
- Syria: Once it is clear that the Assad regime is falling, Putin cannot sustain Russia’s major financial and security interests in Syria and has no further reason for Russia to continue to support the Assad regime. “If Putin will, in fact, win on Sunday, it becomes much less important for him to draw that line in the sand that says public protests should never be allowed to bring down what he considers to be a legitimate government,” added Rojansky.
- U.S.–Russia Relations: There is a good reason to believe that Putin will sustain the reset relationship with the United States, Rojansky stated.
About the Author
Matthew Rojansky
Former Deputy Director, Russia and Eurasia Program
Rojansky, formerly executive director of the Partnership for a Secure America, is an expert on U.S. and Russian national security and nuclear-weapon policies.
- An Opportunity for Ambition: Ukraine’s OSCE Chairmanship
- Presiding Over the OSCE: Challenges and OpportunitiesIn The Media
Matthew Rojansky
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Europe
- The Uncomfortable Truth About EU EnlargementCommentary
Before the next wave of EU enlargement takes place, the union needs to grapple with thorny questions of how power is distributed among its members.
Emil Sondaj Hansen, Ditte Brasso Sørensen
- The Denmark-Greenland-U.S. Agreement Needs to Stand the Test of TimeCommentary
The new U.S.–Denmark–Greenland agreement will help Washington exert political, economic, and financial dominance under the guise of security. Yet, it acknowledged Copenhagen’s and Nuuk’s sovereignty on the island.
Marc Pierini
- A Black Sea Truce Is About Global Food Security, TooCommentary
A summer of escalation in the Black Sea has hurt Ukraine economically and is exacerbating world food security. A truce is needed—as is a broader reframing of Europe’s Ukraine strategy.
Thomas de Waal
- Taking the Pulse: Does the EU Have a Germany Problem?Commentary
Are Germany’s economic, industrial, and political struggles becoming a liability for the EU’s ability to rise to the geopolitical moment?
Rym Momtaz, ed.
- The Speech Ursula von der Leyen Can’t DeliverCommentary
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is about to give her annual address on the state of the EU. Here’s what she won’t—but should—say.
Rym Momtaz
