Command and Control in a Nuclear-Armed Iran

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    "Shahram Chubin"
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    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
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    "Iranian Proliferation",
    "Transatlantic Cooperation",
    "Europe’s Southern Neighborhood"
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Other

Command and Control in a Nuclear-Armed Iran

With the international spotlight focused on Iran and its nuclear agenda, Tehran has been loath to reliably assure the international community of its ultimate intentions.

By Shahram Chubin

Published on Feb 11, 2013

Source: Proliferation Papers No. 45

In the long standoff regarding its nuclear ambition, Iran has cultivated ambiguity and been loath to reliably assure the international community of its ultimate intentions, complicating Western efforts to understand, let alone constrain, Tehran’s endeavors. While many analyses have focused on how to prevent or contain a potential nuclear-armed Iran, the posture Iran would adopt once it has developed its nuclear weapons remains elusive. This paper highlights that while opting for command-and-control (C2) arrangements, Iran would have to reconcile two contrasting imperatives: first, to disperse assets and decentralize C2 to minimize the risks and potential damages of a disabling strike, which has been seen as a real – even imminent – threat in recent years. A contrasting concern emerged as the Iranian Revolutionay Guards’ Corps became a key formulator and executor of Tehran’s security policy: how to guard against the risk of unauthorized use of major weapons systems? Among the factors that could influence Iran’s choices in terms of C2 arrangements, this paper focuses on Tehran’s national security experience, the lessons it may have derived from it, as well as from the experience of other countries.

This piece originally appeared in IFRI's Proliferation Papers.

About the Author

Shahram Chubin

Former Nonresident Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program

Chubin, who is based in Geneva, focuses his research on nonproliferation, terrorism, and Middle East security issues. He was director of studies at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Switzerland, from 1996 to 2009.

Recent Work

In The Media
Iran and the P5+1 in Moscow: Time is Running Out (Again)
- Shahram Chubin
In The Media
The Revolution in Cairo is a Serious Warning for the Mullahs
- Shahram Chubin

Security Nuclear Policy North America United States Middle East Iran Western Europe Europe

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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