• Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Europe logoCarnegie lettermark logo
EUUkraine
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Petr Topychkanov"
  ],
  "type": "commentary",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
  "programAffiliation": "",
  "programs": [],
  "projects": [],
  "regions": [
    "South Asia",
    "Pakistan"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform",
    "Civil Society"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

Commentary
Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

Pakistan’s Autumn Fever

Pakistan has been in turmoil for more than 40 days: protests headed by Imran Khan and Tahir-ul-Qadri have taken the country by storm. Yet the protest movement seems to be running out of steam. The weakening of the protest movement has much to do with Prime Minister Sharif’s decision not to crack down on the protests.

Link Copied
By Petr Topychkanov
Published on Sep 26, 2014

Pakistan has been in turmoil for more than 40 days: protests headed by Imran Khan and Tahir-ul-Qadri have taken the country by storm. Sit-in demonstrations are taking place in Islamabad and elsewhere throughout Pakistan. The protesters’ central demand is the resignation of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government. Since the start of the demonstrations, more than ten people have died in clashes with the police, and more than a hundred people have been injured.

Yet the protest movement seems to be running out of steam, even as Imran Khan and Tahir-ul-Qadri call for more demonstrations. Fewer people are taking to the streets now, although they still number in the thousands. Public polls indicate that the protest’s leaders are gradually losing their popularity. For the time being, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s position remains secure.

Some outside observers did not expect the protest movement, headed by relatively low-profile politicians, to grow to such an extent. A number of factors may explain this surprising burst of civil society, including voters’ disenchantment with the Sharif government that emerged victorious from the 2013 elections. Sharif’s government has not lived up to voters’ inflated expectations. Indeed, there have been no substantive changes in the country’s economic situation since Sharif took office.

Imran Khan’s and Tahir-ul-Qadri’s organizational skills have also played an important role in fomenting public outrage. They have committed considerable funds to mobilizing, transporting and supplying the protestors.

It is worth noting that despite their mass scale, the protests have not become the site of terrorist attacks, which have too frequently taken place at large-scale rallies in Pakistan. Perhaps most notably, terrorist attacks claimed the life of Benazir Bhutto, the leader of the Pakistan Peoples Party, at a rally on December 27, 2007.

The factors that initially propelled Imran Khan’s movement have now begun to work against it. Having capitalized on protesters’ anger, the movement’s leaders have failed to steer their supporters toward attainable goals, and generally failed to formulate a positive agenda. Certainly, it would be naïve to think that Sharif’s government will resign merely out of fear of street protests.

Of course, a massive government crackdown on the protest movement would have helped Imran Khan and Tahir ul-Qadri, by painting them as the regime’s victims. However, this did not happen. The isolated incidents of police brutality are now being handled in court.

The movement’s impressive organization and the financial resources at its disposal raise questions about its backers. Some observers believe that the aid from abroad played some role in supporting the movement. Others think the army was involved in organizing the protests. If one of these theories proves accurate, it will tarnish the reputation of the movement and its leaders, in addition to casting doubt on the motivations of future demonstrations. After all, getting help from overseas or the military squarely contradicts the politicians’ public pronouncements.

The weakening of the protest movement also has much to do with Sharif’s reaction. Firstly, Sharif did not (or perhaps could not) crack down on the protests. As a result, people vented their feelings at the rallies in a contained way, and outbursts never translated into anything more serious. Secondly, Sharif has managed to gain the support of the major political forces inside the country. It is important that many of them refused to support Imran Khan and Tahir-ul-Qadri, even if they did not directly side with the prime minister. Thirdly, he was able to keep the army above the political fray, thanks to the support of General Raheel Sharif, his appointee to the position of the Chief of Staff of the Army. Several other appointments to key positions in the military were made on September 23. Most importantly, Lieutenant General Rizwan Akhtar was appointed director-general of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which has further strengthened the support for Nawaz Sharif among the armed forces. At the very least, this move has demonstrated the army’s reluctance to interfere with the political struggle, if not inspired direct support for the prime minister.

About the Author

Petr Topychkanov

Former Fellow, Nonproliferation Program, Moscow Center

Topychkanov was a fellow in the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Nonproliferation Program.

    Recent Work

  • In The Media
    Iranian and Russian Perspectives on the Global System

      Petr Topychkanov

  • In The Media
    Premonition of Nuclear Threat

      Petr Topychkanov

Petr Topychkanov
Former Fellow, Nonproliferation Program, Moscow Center
Petr Topychkanov
Political ReformCivil SocietySouth AsiaPakistan

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Europe

  • Research
    New Approaches to Defending Global Civil Society

    New thinking is needed on how global civil society can be protected. In an era of major-power rivalry, competitive geopolitics, and security primacy, civil society is in danger of getting squeezed – in some countries, almost entirely out of existence.

      Richard Youngs, ed., Elene Panchulidze, ed.

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Can Europe Still Matter in Syria?

    Europe’s interests in Syria extend beyond migration management, yet the EU trails behind other players in the country’s post-Assad reconstruction. To boost its influence in Damascus, the union must upgrade its commitment to ensuring regional stability.

      Bianka Speidl, Hanga Horváth-Sántha

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Europolis, Where Europe Ends

    A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outward. In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning.

      Thomas de Waal

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Taking the Pulse: Is It Time for Europe to Reengage With Belarus?

    In return for a trade deal and the release of political prisoners, the United States has lifted sanctions on Belarus, breaking the previous Western policy consensus. Should Europeans follow suit, using their leverage to extract concessions from Lukashenko, or continue to isolate a key Kremlin ally?

      Thomas de Waal, ed.

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Armenia’s Election Is a Foreign Affair

    As the 2026 Armenian election approaches, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is facing fierce opposition from both Russia and the diaspora. He will need the help of Europe, the United States, and regional neighbours to advance his ambitious foreign policy. 

      Thomas de Waal

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
Carnegie Europe logo, white
Rue du Congrès, 151000 Brussels, Belgium
  • Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
  • Projects
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Gender Equality Plan
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.