• Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Europe logoCarnegie lettermark logo
EUUkraine
  • Donate
{
  "authors": [
    "Sarah Yerkes"
  ],
  "type": "commentary",
  "centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
  "centers": [
    "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
    "Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
  ],
  "collections": [],
  "englishNewsletterAll": "menaTransitions",
  "nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
  "primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
  "programAffiliation": "MEP",
  "programs": [
    "Middle East"
  ],
  "projects": [
    "Tunisia Monitor"
  ],
  "regions": [
    "North Africa",
    "Tunisia",
    "Maghreb"
  ],
  "topics": [
    "Political Reform"
  ]
}

Source: Getty

Commentary

Five Reasons Why Tunisia’s Early Presidential Elections Will Shake Things Up

Tunisia’s first democratically elected president died on July 25. His death has squeezed even tighter what was already a narrow window for the election campaign, with far-reaching consequences.

Link Copied
By Sarah Yerkes
Published on Aug 13, 2019
Project hero Image

Project

Tunisia Monitor

Carnegie’s Tunisia Monitor project tracks the status of the country’s transition in the economic, political, and security spheres. This project provides original analysis and policy recommendations from a network of Tunisian contributors and Carnegie experts to inform decisionmakers in Tunisia, Europe, and the United States. This endeavor is supported by a grant from the Open Society Foundations.

Learn More

When Beji Caid Essebsi died, the Tunisian president had almost reached the end of his term. The next presidential elections were scheduled for November 17. His death has forced the country to hold the elections earlier, because the interim president can only legally hold that office for a maximum of ninety days—until October 23.

To meet this new deadline, the electoral body, in consultation with Interim President Mohamed Ennaceur, chose to move the presidential elections up by two months, to September 15. That decision has serious political and logistical implications.

It flips the order of elections.

Before Essebsi’s death, the presidential elections were supposed to take place six weeks after separate legislative (or parliamentary) elections.

Because many parties putting forward a presidential candidate would also compete for parliamentary seats, having the presidential elections first was intentional. The Tunisian political landscape is crowded with more than 220 parties, and parties only need to win 3 percent of the vote to enter parliament.

This means that no clear winner will emerge from the legislative elections—even the most popular parties such as Ennahda, Heart of Tunisia, or Tahya Tounes are likely to secure no more than 25 to 30 percent of the vote.

But with presidential elections coming first, the winner’s party might receive a big boost—and the losers will face an uphill battle to regain momentum in the short window before the legislative elections.

It gives an advantage to independents.

By holding the presidential contest before the legislative elections, many parties will enter the legislative race right after their presidential candidate has just suffered a loss.

Conversely, independent lists, which make up nearly half of those running for parliament, will enter the legislative elections with a clean slate.

It creates logistical challenges.

Tunisia’s electoral body, the Independent High Authority for Elections (ISIE), now must pull off an election two months earlier than planned.

The ISIE has faced logistical challenges in the past, and had to delay municipal elections four separate times over two and a half years. Moving the elections up by two months puts tremendous pressure on the ISIE to prepare the voting materials and polling stations, as well as on international and domestic observers.

It rushes the legal review process.

Shortly before Essebsi’s death, the Tunisian parliament passed a law changing the criteria for presidential candidates. This would have effectively prohibited some of the top candidates from running, including frontrunner Nabil Karoui, a media magnate.

But the president never signed the law, so it did not take effect. Many in the political sphere would still like to stop Karoui and other political outsiders from running. But with only five weeks between when presidential candidates declare and the new date of the election, there is very little time for a robust legal process to vet candidates.

But most importantly, it is causing confusion for voters.

Tunisia is already suffering from massive public mistrust of the political system, and party politics in particular.

Voter turnout has dramatically declined in each of the three post-revolution elections.

By changing the order of elections and cutting the presidential campaign period in half, there is little time to educate voters on the differences between candidates, and why it is so important to take part in the country’s second-ever democratic presidential elections.

About the Author

Sarah Yerkes
Sarah Yerkes

Senior Fellow, Middle East Program

Sarah Yerkes is a senior fellow in Carnegie’s Middle East Program, where her research focuses on Tunisia’s political, economic, and security developments as well as state-society relations in the Middle East and North Africa.

    Recent Work

  • Commentary
    The Iran War Is Making America Less Safe
      • Sarah Yerkes

      Sarah Yerkes

  • Article
    Civil Society Restrictions in North Africa: The Impact on Climate-Focused Civil Society Organizations
      • Sarah Yerkes

      Sarah Yerkes

Sarah Yerkes
Senior Fellow, Middle East Program
Sarah Yerkes
Political ReformNorth AfricaTunisiaMaghreb

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Europe

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    The EU Needs a Third Way in Iran

    European reactions to the war in Iran have lost sight of wider political dynamics. The EU must position itself for the next phase of the crisis without giving up on its principles.

      Richard Youngs

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Can Europe Still Matter in Syria?

    Europe’s interests in Syria extend beyond migration management, yet the EU trails behind other players in the country’s post-Assad reconstruction. To boost its influence in Damascus, the union must upgrade its commitment to ensuring regional stability.

      Bianka Speidl, Hanga Horváth-Sántha

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Europolis, Where Europe Ends

    A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outward. In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning.

      Thomas de Waal

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Taking the Pulse: What Issue Is Europe Ignoring at Its Peril in 2026?

    2026 has started in crisis, as the actions of unpredictable leaders shape an increasingly volatile global environment. To shift from crisis response to strategic foresight, what under-the-radar issues should the EU prepare for in the coming year?

      Thomas de Waal

  • Commentary
    Can Europe and Africa Mend Fences?

    Despite the strategic importance of relations between the EU and the African Union, deep divisions remain between the blocs. At their upcoming summit, both partners should strive to build a mutually beneficial cooperation.

      Marta Martinelli

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
Carnegie Europe logo, white
Rue du Congrès, 151000 Brussels, Belgium
  • Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
  • Projects
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Gender Equality Plan
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.