Other
François Godement, Ashley J. Tellis
{
"authors": [
"François Godement"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "asia",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "AP",
"programs": [
"Asia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"East Asia",
"China"
],
"topics": []
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
Two Chinas, One System - Dissimulation and Strategic Opportunities
Not enough commentary has focused on the extraordinary diversity of China’s international posture these days.
Published on May 25, 2020
Source: Institut Montaigne
Not enough commentary has focused on the extraordinary diversity of China’s international posture these days. Within the same fortnight, Xi Jinping has announced at the World Health Organization a USD 2 billion contribution towards recovery from Covid-19, targeted at developing countries, and a host of medical initiatives in Africa. Liu He, the chief Chinese trade negotiator, held a call with his American counterparts where he reiterated his commitment to implementing the Phase One trade deal for 2020. Wang Yi, China’s Foreign affairs Minister, talks about the need to avoid a Cold War with the United States. Liu has separately committed to holding talks in earnest with the EU, in order to arrive at a long-sought Bilateral Investment Agreement.
Meanwhile, China’s spring session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) is setting a 6,6% increase in the defense budget, at a moment when other central budget expenditures are set to decrease. The rise in military spending is set to exceed, possibly by far, the country’s economic growth in 2020, for which no target is published this year. Even more tellingly, the NPC is to immediately write a national security law for Hong Kong, where the official goal is now "long-term peace and stability", terms previously used for Tibet and Xinjiang. The adjective "peaceful" is dropped from the mention of Taiwan’s reunification with the mainland.
The new Chinese posture alternates hardline decisions and expressions – think "wolf warrior diplomacy" for the latter – with tailored initiatives, and consensual but vague commitments on some issues. Is this merely obfuscation, or is there a logic at work in this sharply divided international posture? Certainly, the new brand of public diplomacy under Xi Jinping has made ample use of lies. The most egregious case used to be Xi’s assurance to Barack Obama in 2015 that China would not "militarize" the South China Sea. It will now have to be replaced by the coming endgame in Hong Kong, where in a series of well-choreographed moves, China has done away with the commitment to uphold "One country, two systems" until 2047. Officially nesting China’s security organs inside Hong Kong, affirming the precedence of its Central Liaison Office over the Basic Law, and leaving the Special Administrative Region’s (SAR) "government" the mere task of transposing the future law into the region’s legal system ends the existence of Hong Kong as an autonomous entity. In the 1930s, an expression took hold: treaties were not worth more than the paper that they were written on. This is now the fate of the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration.
This article was originally published by Institut Montaigne.
About the Author
François Godement
Former Nonresident Senior Fellow, Asia Program
Godement, an expert on Chinese and East Asian strategic and international affairs, was a nonresident senior fellow in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
- Reorienting China Policy By Working With Europe
- China at the Gates: A New Power Audit of EU-China RelationsIn The Media
François Godement, Abigaël Vasselier
Recent Work
More Work from Carnegie Europe
- Resetting Cyber Relations with the United StatesArticle
For years, the United States anchored global cyber diplomacy. As Washington rethinks its leadership role, the launch of the UN’s Cyber Global Mechanism may test how allies adjust their engagement.
Patryk Pawlak, Chris Painter
- Taking the Pulse: Can the EU Attract Foreign Investment and Reduce Dependencies?Commentary
EU member states clash over how to boost the union’s competitiveness: Some want to favor European industries in public procurement, while others worry this could deter foreign investment. So, can the EU simultaneously attract global capital and reduce dependencies?
Rym Momtaz, ed.
- Taking the Pulse: What Issue Is Europe Ignoring at Its Peril in 2026?Commentary
2026 has started in crisis, as the actions of unpredictable leaders shape an increasingly volatile global environment. To shift from crisis response to strategic foresight, what under-the-radar issues should the EU prepare for in the coming year?
Thomas de Waal
- China Is the Weak Link in Europe’s Ukraine StrategyCommentary
China plays an increasingly active role in the Kremlin’s hybrid war against Europe. The EU must confront this growing China-Russia cooperation, as it poses grave threats to both European security and economic resilience.
Maksym Beznosiuk
- Taking the Pulse: Has Europe Given Up its Leadership on Climate Change?Commentary
COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to energy transition and ecological protection. Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain its role as a driver of global climate action?
Thomas de Waal
