• Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
Carnegie Europe logoCarnegie lettermark logo
EUUkraine
  • Donate
Why Did the Poorest Countries Fail to Catch Up?

Source: Getty

Paper

Why Did the Poorest Countries Fail to Catch Up?

Despite the promises made by globalization, in the last twenty years the world's poorest countries have fallen further behind the rich. In a new Carnegie Paper, Branko Milanovic debunks current development theories that explain why poorer countries have not reaped the rewards of global economic integration.

Link Copied
By Branko Milanovic
Published on Oct 5, 2005

Additional Links

Full Text (PDF)

Source: Carnegie Endowment

Summary
Despite the promises made by globalization, in the last twenty years the world’s poorest countries have fallen further behind the rich. In a new Carnegie Paper, Branko Milanovic debunks current development theories that explain why poorer countries have not reaped the rewards of global economic integration. Using statistical analysis, Milanovic finds that the higher likelihood of poor countries to be involved in wars and civil conflicts is the most important determinant for their lack of growth while, surprisingly, the effects of domestic reforms or international lending were minimal.

Why Did the Poorest Countries Fail to Catch Up? reaches surprising and valuable conclusions about the effects of globalization on those who feel it most.

Click on the link above for the full text of this Carnegie Paper.

About the Author
Branko Milanovic is a senior associate in the Trade, Equity and Development Project at the Carnegie Endowment. He is also a lead economist in the World Bank’s research department, where he works on the topics of income inequality and globalization.

This is a web-only publication.

About the Author

Branko Milanovic

Former Adjunct Scholar

Milanovic is a lead economist in the World Bank's research department,where he has been working on the topics of income inequality and globalization. Previously, he was a World Bank country economist for Poland and a research fellow at the Institute of Economic Sciences in Belgrade.

    Recent Work

  • In The Media
    Global Crisis: How Far to Go? Part I

      Branko Milanovic

  • Other
    Political Alternation, Regardless of Ideology, Diminishes Influence Buying: Lessons from Transitions in Former Communist States

      Karla Hoff, Shale Horowitz, Branko Milanovic

Branko Milanovic
Former Adjunct Scholar
Branko Milanovic
North AmericaEconomyTrade

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

More Work from Carnegie Europe

  • Turkey Erdogan Caucasus Central Asia
    Article
    How Turkey Can Help the Economies of the South Caucasus to Diversify

    Over the past two decades, regional collaboration in the South Caucasus has intensified. Turkey and the EU should establish a cooperation framework to accelerate economic development and diversification.

      • Feride Inan
      • Güven Sak
      • Berat Yücel

      Feride İnan, Güven Sak, Berat Yücel

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    How Europe Can Survive the AI Labor Transition

    Integrating AI into the workplace will increase job insecurity, fundamentally reshaping labor markets. To anticipate and manage this transition, the EU must build public trust, provide training infrastructures, and establish social protections.

      Amanda Coakley

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Can Europe Still Matter in Syria?

    Europe’s interests in Syria extend beyond migration management, yet the EU trails behind other players in the country’s post-Assad reconstruction. To boost its influence in Damascus, the union must upgrade its commitment to ensuring regional stability.

      Bianka Speidl, Hanga Horváth-Sántha

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Taking the Pulse: Can the EU Attract Foreign Investment and Reduce Dependencies?

    EU member states clash over how to boost the union’s competitiveness: Some want to favor European industries in public procurement, while others worry this could deter foreign investment. So, can the EU simultaneously attract global capital and reduce dependencies?

      • Rym Momtaz

      Rym Momtaz, ed.

  • Commentary
    Strategic Europe
    Europolis, Where Europe Ends

    A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outward. In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning.

      Thomas de Waal

Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
Carnegie Europe logo, white
Rue du Congrès, 151000 Brussels, Belgium
  • Research
  • Strategic Europe
  • About
  • Experts
  • Projects
  • Events
  • Contact
  • Careers
  • Privacy
  • For Media
  • Gender Equality Plan
Get more news and analysis from
Carnegie Europe
© 2026 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.