Rising Tensions in Lebanon: Prospects and Scenarios

Thu. October 16th, 20254:00 PM - 5:00 PM (EEST)
Virtual

As Israeli airstrikes increase in Lebanon, reportedly targeting Hezbollah positions in the South and Beqaa Valley, killing over 100 civilians since the ceasefire in November 2024, questions are being asked about Lebanon’s near-term stability. While a repeat of the escalation seen in Fall 2024 is not inevitable, the present dynamics highlight the Israeli pressures facing key Lebanese actors, including the country’s leadership, army, and security forces. How will internal and external pressures shape Lebanon’s trajectory, following initial optimism early this year?

 To examine these questions, the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center will host a panel discussion on Thursday, October 16, at 4:00 PM EEST (UTC+3). The discussion will explore potential scenarios, Israel’s strategic objectives in Lebanon, Hezbollah’s capacity to sustain confrontation, and the implications for Lebanon’s political and economic future.

The panel will feature Sami Nader, director of the Institute of Political Science at Saint Joseph University, Mona Yacoubian, senior advisor and director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy director for research at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center.

The event will be held in English and moderated by Rudayna Al- Baalbaky, communications manager at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center.

Viewers are invited to submit questions via the live chat feature on Facebook and YouTube.

For more information, please contact Najwa Yassine at najwa.yassine@carnegie-mec.org

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
event speakers

Rudayna Al-Baalbaky

Communications Manager at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center.

Rudayna Al-Baalbaky is the Communications manager at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. She is a political science researcher and communications professional with more than ten years of experience in think tanks and policy research institutes in the MENA region.

Mohanad Hage Ali

Deputy Director for Research, Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center

Mohanad Hage Ali is the deputy director for research at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center.

Sami Nader

Director of the Institute of Political Science at Saint Joseph University.

Sami Nader is the director of the Institute of Political Science at Saint Joseph University.

Mona Yacoubian

Senior advisor and director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Mona Yacoubian is a senior advisor for Syria, the Middle East, and North Africa, with the U.S. Institute of Peace and a former Deputy Assistant Administrator for the Middle East at the U.S. Agency for International Development.