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Israel and Iran at War

Last month, President Trump visited the Middle East with promises of ending the raging conflicts in the region. Just weeks later, however, as efforts to reach a deal to reign in Iran’s nuclear program faltered, and against Trump’s wishes, Israel made good on its threats to target Iranian nuclear and ballistic weapons programs, triggering Iranian retaliation and setting the entire region on alert.

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Published on June 26, 2025

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Dear Reader,

Last month, President Trump visited the Middle East with promises of ending the raging conflicts in the region. Just weeks later, however, as efforts to reach a deal to reign in Iran’s nuclear program faltered, and against Trump’s wishes, Israel made good on its threats to target Iranian nuclear and ballistic weapons programs, triggering Iranian retaliation and setting the entire region on alert. To unpack ongoing regional security dynamics, Carnegie’s Middle East Program convened a panel of experts in mid-June, analyzing how the U.S. retrenchment from the global stage is impacting local security arrangements and how local state and non-state actors are navigating a new global order.

Addressing another aspect of U.S. foreign policy, Nathan Brown explained how the Trump administration’s policy toward higher education threatens American “strength, soft power, and revenue.” He highlights the uncertainty of the administration’s approach, noting that “the previously solid foundation of federal support for research and higher education is being replaced by sand.”

Examining another threat to the region – climate change – Joy Arkeh and Nourane Awadallah dive into climate change and state fragility in Iraq. Looking at one of the Arab countries most affected by climate change, they unpack the challenges facing the country’s efforts to mitigate climate change including “a weak and predominantly informal private sector,” a reliance on oil revenues, “low” human capital, “overpopulation”, and “deep division and unresolved grievances.”

Andrew Leber tackles a surprising development in the Saudi media landscape – the rise of podcasts, which cover topics including “business success stories, human psychology, social change, and true crime.” As he argues, these podcasts “indirectly” address politics and offer a rare opportunity for the Saudi public to hear from elites and officials in a non-pre-scripted format and represent a real shift in the media landscape in the country.

Turning to the unrest in Syria, Armenak Tokmajyan examines the impact on the Druze community, who are, he argues, “central to Syria’s state-building process.”

In this volatile and dangerous moment in the region, we invite you to follow our work and engage with our content. As always, we welcome and look forward to your feedback.

Sincerely,
Sarah Yerkes
Senior Fellow, Middle East Program

Israel-Iran War

Israel’s and Iran’s Military Adventurism Has Put the Middle East in an Alarmingly Dangerous Situation

The region will not see stability without the development of mechanisms for collective security.

By Amr Hamzawy

Israel-Iran War

Israel Goes to War with Iran

Ultimately, this military offensive, which may continue for some time, has placed the region on an escalatory path. Where it leads cannot yet be determined.

By Maha Yahya

 U.S.-Israel Relations 

Netanyahu’s Dangerous Power Over Trump

If the Israeli prime minister wants the United States to stay in the Iran war, there is a good chance he will get his way.

By Sarah Yerkes

 U.S. Student Visa Suspension 

The Murkiness Is the Message

The cement foundation of U.S. federal support for research and higher education is being replaced by sand.

By Nathan J. Brown

 Hezbollah 

Hezbollah’s Israeli-Iranian Quandary

Will the party remain bound to Iran or prioritize its organizational survival and the needs of Lebanon’s Shiite population?

By Mohanad Hage Ali

 Gaza

Is Humanitarian Aid Becoming a Tool to Advance the “Trump Plan” in Gaza?

The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation fails to meet minimum international standards for aid delivery.

By Katherine Wilkens

Cryptocurrency in the Gulf 

The Future of Cryptocurrency in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

The GCC states are, to varying degrees, opening up to digital finance. This is part of an effort to diversify their economies and wean themselves off U.S.-dominated monetary systems.

By Ala’a Kolkaila

 Saudi Politics 

How Saudi Podcasts Navigate Political Constraints

New Saudi podcasts offer a window into an otherwise opaque policymaking process, but face limits in how much they can criticize official policy.

By Andrew Leber

 Climate Change 

Climate Change and State Fragility in Iraq: Budgeting, Governance, and the Future of Sustainability

Iraq will need more institutional capacity and financial investment to diversify its economy away from oil and meet its sustainability goals.

By Joy Arkeh and Nourane Awadallah

 Syrian Politics

 Minority Retort in Syria

 The country’s Druze community, divided and vulnerable, finds itself in the midst of a regional maelstrom.

 By Armenak Tokmajyan

 Lebanon-Syria Relations

 Beirut and Damascus Remain Divided

 Lebanon and Syria have gone through major changes recently, but tensions remain between the two countries.

 By Mohamad Fawaz

 Egypt

The Second Republic: Remaking Egypt Under Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi

 Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi is building a new republic defined by a social ethos of “nothing for free,” a new form of state capitalism, and hyperpresidential powers set within a military guardianship that secures his regime but leaves it unable to resolve political, economic, and social challenges.

 By Yezid Sayigh

Events & Media

  • From Shadow Combat to Open Conflict: The Israel-Iran War and Regional Reverberations Watch the event
  • Perspectives on Regional Security in the Middle East Watch the event
  • Lebanon’s Arduous Road to Economic and Financial Reform Watch the event
  • Transformations in the Regional Druze Leadership Watch the event

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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