The Debate on “Sequencing”

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Other

The Debate on “Sequencing”

By Thomas Carothers

Published on Jul 17, 2007

Source: Journal of Democracy

The July 2007 issue of Journal of Democracy showcases a debate on Thomas Carothers’ “The ‘Sequencing’ Fallacy” featuring Edward Mansfield, Jack Snyder, Francis Fukuyama, Sheri Berman, and Carothers. Mansfield and Snyder reassert their view that rapid democratization can be a dangerous recipe for civil or interstate violence. Carothers responds by explaining that Mansfield and Snyder mischaracterize his analysis while failing to address his central assertions: authoritarianism is inherently at odds with democratic state-building and gradually introducing democratic reforms shows greater promise than putting off democracy indefinitely. Fukuyama highlights the tension between violent state-building and the creation of liberal institutions. Rejecting the notion that democratization must follow any particular sequence, Berman emphasizes that today’s successful democracies each followed a unique –and often tumultuous– path.

Click on PDF icon above to read full debate.

About the Author

Thomas Carothers

Harvey V. Fineberg Chair for Democracy Studies; Director, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program

Thomas Carothers, director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, is a leading expert on comparative democratization and international support for democracy.

Recent Work

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Political Reform Democracy Security Foreign Policy North America Middle East China

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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The Debate on “Sequencing”

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people watching smoke rising at sunrise from rooftops

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Just look at Iraq in 1991.

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As Iran defends its interests in the region and its regime’s survival, it may push Hezbollah into the abyss.

Michael Young

GCC foreign minister meeting in Kuwait City on June 2, 2025

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Without structural reform, the organization, which is racked by internal rivalries, risks sliding into irrelevance.

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Iran and the New Geopolitical Moment

A coalition of states is seeking to avert a U.S. attack, and Israel is in the forefront of their mind.

Michael Young

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Fifteen years after the Arab uprisings, a new generation is mobilizing behind an inclusive growth model, and has the technical savvy to lead an economic transformation that works for all.

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