Pieter Bottelier is no longer with the Carnegie Endowment.
Pieter Bottelier was a nonresident scholar in Carnegie’s International Economics Program and senior adjunct professor of China studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), the Johns Hopkins University. His work currently focuses on China’s economic reform and development.
He also taught at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government (2001–2003) and Georgetown University (2004).
Bottelier served in several capacities at the World Bank from 1970 to 1998. During the Asian financial crisis (1997–1998) he was senior adviser to the vice president for East Asia. Other positions included: chief of the World Bank’s resident mission in Beijing (1993–1997); director for Latin America (1987–1992); director for North Africa (1992–1993); division chief for Mexico (1982–1987); resident chief economist in Jakarta, Indonesia (1979–1983); and desk economist for various East and West African countries (1970–1979).
Bottelier has authored many articles and book chapters on China’s economy. He also serves as an adviser on China to the Conference Board, an independent membership organization that conducts and disseminates research on management and the marketplace.
China's economy is slowing, but this is a good sign. As China's growth model becomes more consumer spending-driven, growth will be more sustainable. Structural reforms will also be somewhat easier to implement.
In the first quarter of 2012, economic developments in China unfolded according to plan. Growth slowed moderately and incremental steps were taken towards key economic and financial reforms.
China performed better than expected in 2011, managing major risks and serving as the world’s strongest economic engine. In early 2012, China is making progress towards rebalancing as its external surplus continues to shrink.
If 2011 was the year of the euro crisis, Carnegie scholars examine what issue will have the greatest impact on the global economy in 2012.
The global economic outlook for 2012 and 2013 is exceptionally uncertain. With the euro crisis continuing to fester, a global credit crunch, and generalized slowdown threatening emerging markets, it remains unclear where growth will come from.
China faces the difficult challenge of promoting macroeconomic rebalancing without rekindling inflation and property bubbles.
Despite growing fears of a sharp slowdown in China, the Chinese economy is in a strong position and policy makers have the ability—and the resources—to ensure that growth does not decelerate too quickly.
China is promoting the use of its currency for trade and investment, but this will eventually require China to open its capital account and make its exchange rate more flexible—moves that political considerations may block for years to come.
The need to address pressing near-term challenges, such as inflation, may not conflict with China’s medium-term rebalancing goals. Even though the policy outlook is uncertain, several long-term dynamics make rebalancing likely.
As worries about China’s economy overheating escalate, Chinese policy makers are focusing on domestic rebalancing and placing an increased priority on increasing domestic consumption and developing less urbanized regions.
