An Alternative Explanation to the "Underground Great Wall"

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An Alternative Explanation to the "Underground Great Wall"

IN THIS ISSUE: The "underground Great Wall," US keeps major lead over Russia in nukes, EU's responsibility for nuclear dangers, missile shield talks with U.S. 'going nowhere,' Panetta pledges 'nuclear umbrella' for S. Korea, CIA id'd North Korean uranium plant in 2002.

Published on October 27, 2011

In This Issue

The "Underground Great Wall:" An Alternative Explanation
Carnegie Proliferation Analysis

U.S. Keeps Major Lead Over Russia in Nuclear Weapons
Washington Post

Europe Needs to Shoulder More Responsibility for Addressing Nuclear Dangers
Carnegie Commentary

Missile shield Talks with U.S. 'Going Nowhere'
National Post

Panetta Pledges 'Nuclear Umbrella' for South Korea
Khaleej Times

CIA ID'd North Korean Uranium Plant in 2002, Condoleezza Rice Says
Global Security Newswire

The "Underground Great Wall:" An Alternative Explanation

James Acton | Carnegie Proliferation Analysis

It is tempting to dismiss the story in Monday's Wall Street Journal claiming that China has around 3,000 nuclear warheads as the kind of reporting that could only be considered "fair and balanced" on Fox News and just ignore it. After all, as long ago as 2004, Jeffrey Lewis tracked down the origin of media reports cited by the Journal that China has 2,350 nuclear weapons.

Embarrassingly, the source is an online essay based on bogus U.S. intelligence information that was posted by a Singapore University student. Moreover, it hardly seems worth wasting storage space on the Carnegie server explaining why it is invalid to estimate the size of China's contemporary arsenal by taking a 1960s U.S. intelligence report that predicted how many warheads China would have in 1973 and then assuming that it has built up at a constant rate since then. What does make the article worth engaging with, however, is its inability to even try to understand China's strategic challenges and why it might go to some fairly extreme lengths to try to solve them. Full Article

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More from Proliferation News

U.S. Keeps Major Lead Over Russia in Nuclear Weapons

Walter Pincus | Washington Post

The United States has slightly reduced its numbers of strategic intercontinental missiles, bombers and nuclear warheads, but it continues to maintain a major advantage over Russia, according to figures released this week by the State Department. Full Article

Europe Needs to Shoulder More Responsibility for Addressing Nuclear Dangers

Des Browne and Ian Kearns | Carnegie Commentary

In the midst of a financial crisis of existential proportions for the euro, nuclear issues have been pushed to the margins of the European political debate. This is understandable, but it cannot be allowed to continue. Full Article

Missile Shield Talks with U.S. 'Going Nowhere'

National Post

Russia's talks with the West on missile defence are "going nowhere," Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday, staking out a tough position in a dispute the United States wants to resolve before elections next year in both nations. Full Article

Panetta Pledges 'Nuclear Umbrella' for South Korea

Khaleej Times

U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta pledged Wednesday to preserve a "nuclear umbrella" protecting close ally South Korea, a day after the U.S. held talks with Seoul's hostile neighbour North Korea. Full Article

CIA ID'd North Korean Uranium Plant in 2002, Condoleezza Rice Says

Global Security Newswire

Former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in her new memoir states that senior Bush administration officials were told by the CIA in 2002 that North Korea had constructed a sizable uranium enrichment plant -- eight years before Pyongyang declared such activities to the world. Full Article

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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