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China Could Have 1,500 Nuclear Warheads by 2035: Pentagon Report

IN THIS ISSUE: China Could Have 1,500 Nuclear Warheads by 2035: Pentagon Report, U.S. Preparing More Sanctions on North Korea, Sullivan Says, Biden’s Iran Envoy: Sanctions Are ‘Not the Answer’, Russia Says it Will Focus on Building Nuclear Arms Infrastructure in 2023, Kyiv Displays Dud Nuclear-capable Missile Fired by Russia, How Will America Deal with Three-way Nuclear Deterrence?

Published on December 1, 2022

China Could Have 1,500 Nuclear Warheads by 2035: Pentagon Report

Oren Liebermann | CNN

China’s stockpile of nuclear warheads has surpassed 400 in a fraction of the time previously estimated by the United States, a major Pentagon report revealed, with Beijing focusing on accelerating its nuclear expansion as it seeks to challenge the US as the world’s top super power. In 2020, the US estimated that China had nuclear warheads numbering in the low-200s and expected the stockpile to double within a decade. Just two years later, China has reached that mark and could have some 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035 if they continue to expand their stockpile at the current pace, according to the 2022 China Military Power report released Tuesday.

U.S. Preparing More Sanctions on North Korea, Sullivan Says

Josh Smith | Reuters 

The United States is working a new round of sanctions against North Korea, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Thursday, as Pyongyang forges ahead with banned missile development and signals a possible new nuclear test. "We have a new set of sanctions measures coming forward as we speak," he told a conference in Seoul organised by the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies and the South Korean JoongAng media group.

Biden’s Iran Envoy: Sanctions Are ‘Not the Answer’

Ravi Argawal | Foreign Policy

I’ll be candid: I think we need to fine-tune our sanctions. It’s not the answer. If it had been the answer, then Iran would not be advancing its nuclear program. We’d have different results in many countries across the globe. We owe it to ourselves to have an honest examination of how sanctions work and how they don’t work in this particular case of Iran.

 Russia Says it Will Focus on Building Nuclear Arms Infrastructure in 2023

Reuters

Russia will pay special attention to building infrastructure for its nuclear forces in 2023, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Wednesday. Shoigu said in televised comments that Russia would also work to improve the combat capabilities of its missile forces and that facilities were being built to accommodate new missile systems. 

Kyiv Displays Dud Nuclear-capable Missile Fired by Russia 

Jaroslav Lukiv | BBC News

Russia is now using nuclear-capable missiles with non-explosive warheads to exhaust Ukraine's air defences, the Ukrainian military has said. It displayed what it said were fragments of Soviet-made X-55 cruise missiles - designed for nuclear use - found in Ukraine's two western regions. The rockets are being launched to "exhaust the air-defence system of our country," a Ukrainian official said.

How Will America Deal with Three-way Nuclear Deterrence?

The Economist

Stratcom says it needs a new generation of theorists. Admiral Richard compares the conundrum to the three-body problem of astrophysics. The motion of two celestial bodies in orbit around each other is easily predicted by Newton’s mechanics. Add a third body, and their movement becomes chaotically unpredictable. Should America keep concentrating on Russia, whose nuclear arsenal still poses “an enduring existential threat”, and accord less priority to China, or vice versa?

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