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Does Anyone Want Diplomacy on Iran?

IN THIS ISSUE: Who wants diplomacy on Iran?, India test fires Agni-I missile, Brazil's nuclear debate, Tepco meltdown simulation findings, Germany OKs sale of nuclear capable submarine to Israel, Japan, China and S. Korea agree on early nuclear accident notification system.

Published on December 1, 2011
 

Who Wants Diplomacy on Iran?

Mark Hibbs | Arms Control Wonk

Khamenei

Given the diplomatic fallout which began raining down with the pre-release of the IAEA board report on Iran to the P-5 at the beginning of November, I surmised then that there might be a chance that Russia would embellish a two-page offer which it floated to Iran this summer, and that the Obama administration might regard that as a potential opportunity to keep things from spiraling out of control in 2012.

Something like that could transpire. But the more likely prospect is that we will wait indefinitely and in vain for any action to develop a roadmap to resolve this crisis because it would appear that none of the players–not the United States, not the Euro P-2+1, not Russia and China, not Iran, and not Israel–really wants a negotiated settlement.

The logic for the US letting Russia move forward on its offer to Iran with some background guidance from Washington was this: President Obama through election day 2012 will be under pressure from Congress and Republican foes to be firm on Iran, depriving him of any freedom to lead the way toward a diplomatic resolution which the US has said it favors.    Full Article



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