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Proliferation News 2/17/26

IN THIS ISSUE: U.S. and Iran hold nuclear talks amid heavy military buildup, Deep in China’s Mountains, a Nuclear Revival Takes Shape, Iran’s Two-Pronged Approach to Trump: Concessions and Saber Rattling, Nuke-talk is heating up among Europeans in Munich, US conducts first air transport of nuclear microreactor in bid to show technology's viability, A Quarter Century of Nuclear South Asia: Nuclear Noise, Signalling, and the Risk of Escalation in India-Pakistan Crises.

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Published on February 17, 2026

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U.S. and Iran hold nuclear talks amid heavy military buildup 

Susannah George, Leo Sands and Mohamad El Chamaa | Washington Post 

U.S. and Iranian officials concluded a new round of nuclear talks in Geneva on Tuesday, against the backdrop of an expanded U.S. military presence in the Middle East and following weeks of deadly domestic turmoil in Iran. ... The sides met in Geneva on Tuesday for over three hours. Afterward, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that he and his U.S. counterparts had “much more serious discussions” than during the round earlier this month and that they “were able to reach a set of guiding principles,” according to a statement published by Iran’s state media. 


Deep in China’s Mountains, a Nuclear Revival Takes Shape 

Chris Buckley and Agnes Chang | The New York Times 

In the lush, misty valleys of southwest China, satellite imagery reveals the country’s accelerating nuclear buildup, a force designed for a new age of superpower rivalry. ... These are among several secretive nuclear-related sites in Sichuan Province that have expanded and undergone upgrades in recent years. China’s buildup complicates efforts to revive global arms controls after the expiration of the final remaining nuclear arms treaty between the United States and Russia. Washington argues that any successor agreements must also bind China, but Beijing has shown no interest. 


Iran’s Two-Pronged Approach to Trump: Concessions and Saber Rattling 

Laurence Norman and Benoit Faucon | Wall Street Journal  

While Iranian officials are signaling a willingness to compromise around the edges of their nuclear program in a new round of nuclear talks Tuesday, the regime is also talking tough with military exercises in the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Both gambits are aimed at heading off a possible U.S. strike. The question is whether either will move President Trump, who has repeatedly said he wants a deal that ensures Iran won’t get a nuclear weapon and is assembling a massive force just off the country’s coast in case an agreement can’t be reached. 


Nuke-talk is heating up among Europeans in Munich 

Laura Kayali and Victor Jack | Politico 

Multiple European countries are publicly backing talks on a homegrown nuclear deterrent to complement American atomic weapons following an erosion of trust in a Donald Trump-led U.S. Top officials from two Baltic countries told POLITICO that, while they still see NATO as the cornerstone of nuclear deterrence, they are now willing to talk about Europe’s role — adding fresh momentum to a debate that resonated through both public speeches and private conversations at the Munich Security Conference this weekend.  


US conducts first air transport of nuclear microreactor in bid to show technology's viability 

Valerie Volcovici | Reuters  

The U.S. Departments of Energy and Defense on Sunday for the first time transported a small nuclear reactor on a cargo plane from California to Utah to demonstrate the potential to quickly deploy nuclear power for military and civilian use. The agencies partnered with California-based Valar Atomics to fly one of the company’s Ward microreactors on a C-17 aircraft — without nuclear fuel — to Hill Air Force Base in Utah. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Michael Duffey were on the C-17 flight with the reactor and its components, and hailed the event as a breakthrough for U.S. nuclear energy and military logistics. 

  

A Quarter Century of Nuclear South Asia: Nuclear Noise, Signalling, and the Risk of Escalation in India-Pakistan Crises 

Moeed Yusuf and Rizwan Zeb | Carnegie Endowment  

The May 2025 crisis between India and Pakistan was their sixth militarized crisis since the two countries tested nuclear weapons in 1998.1 It both affirmed and debunked cliches about South Asia being the world’s most dangerous nuclear flashpoint. ... This paper examines nuclear signalling between these two rivals during the most prominent crises since the turn of the century, focusing primarily on Pakistan’s crisis behaviour. ‘Signalling’ encompasses allusions to the potential for nuclear war and gestures like sabre-rattling that are intended to motivate the antagonist and, in South Asia’s case, third parties to de-escalate the crisis on terms acceptable to the signaller. 

 

 

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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