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Proliferation News 2/3/2026


IN THIS ISSUE: A New Era of Nuclear-Powered Submarines Is Making Waves in Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones, ‘All Options Are on the Table’: Assessing the International Legality of Nuclear Threats, Is a new US-Russia arms race about to begin?, Iran wants to change venue and format of nuclear talks with U.S., Trump’s Golden Dome, a year in, is struggling to take shape, The Trump Administration exempts new nuclear reactors from environmental review

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Published on February 3, 2026

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A New Era of Nuclear-Powered Submarines Is Making Waves in Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones

Edited by Jamie Kwong, Toby Dalton, and Celia McDowall | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

As the first non–nuclear weapon states (NNWS) set to operate SSNs, they are forging a path through a long-standing gray area of the nuclear nonproliferation regime: the matter of “non-proscribed” nuclear applications that could potentially blur the boundaries between legitimate military uses of nuclear technology and illicit weapons purposes… Both Australia and Brazil are members of NWFZ treaties, the Treaties of Rarotonga and Tlatelolco respectively… Whether or not NWFZs can remain relevant in light of changing geopolitics and technology, in this case the adoption of SSNs by zone member states, turns on several normative, legal, procedural, and technical questions.


‘All Options Are on the Table’: Assessing the International Legality of Nuclear Threats

Anna Hood and Monique Cormier | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Since the dawn of the nuclear age, states with nuclear weapons have threatened to use them… While it is not unusual for the target of a nuclear threat to declare that such a threat is illegal under international law, the question of whether nuclear threats breach international law is not straightforward. This paper sets out the key international laws and norms surrounding nuclear threats and explains how those laws might apply to specific examples of nuclear threats from the last eight decades.


Is a new US-Russia arms race about to begin?

Joshua Keating | Vox

Barring a major unforeseen announcement from Washington or Moscow, the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia will expire on Wednesday… So, is there any hope for getting nuclear talks back on track, or are we doomed to a new arms race? To get some perspective on that question, Vox spoke with Rose Gottemoeller, who, as assistant secretary of state for arms control in the Obama administration, was the chief US negotiator in the talks that led to New START.


Iran wants to change venue and format of nuclear talks with U.S.

Barak Ravid | Axios

Iran has demanded changes to the venue and format for negotiations with the U.S. this Friday, two sources with knowledge tell Axios. If the new demands scupper Friday's talks, they risk pushing President Trump off the diplomatic path and toward the military option at a time when he has already assembled enormous firepower in the Gulf. The sources said the Iranians were walking back from understandings that were reached in recent days after several countries were already invited to participate in the talks.


Trump’s Golden Dome, a year in, is struggling to take shape

Audrey Decker | Politico

President Donald Trump promised the country a stunning missile defense shield that the military would build in record speed. One year and billions of dollars later, his “Golden Dome” dream is no closer to reality… “The whole thing is at risk,” a former senior Pentagon official said. The people warned that Trump’s desire to create such a Herculean feat in three years has been further hampered by inconsistent communication to industry. And they noted some of the technological and logistical hurdles facing the program are likely insurmountable.


The Trump Administration exempts new nuclear reactors from environmental review

Geoff Brumfiel | NPR

The Trump Administration has created an exclusion for new experimental reactors being built at sites around the U.S. from a major environmental law. The law would have required them to disclose how their construction and operation might harm the environment, and it also typically required a written, public assessment of the possible consequences of a nuclear accident… The Department of Energy announced the change Monday in a notice in the Federal Register.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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