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Proliferation News 3/12/26

IN THIS ISSUE: We attacked Iran with no clear plan for regime change, Israeli security sources say, Israeli Air Force Hits Taleghan Nuclear Compound Near Tehran, Poland says foiled cyberattack on nuclear centre may have come from Iran, China’s nuclear warhead storage a ‘highly concentrated risk’, US report says, Germany won't return to nuclear power, chancellor says, United States nuclear weapons, 2026

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Published on March 12, 2026

Proliferation News

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We attacked Iran with no clear plan for regime change, Israeli security sources say

Emma Graham-Harrison | The Guardian

Israel did not have a realistic plan for regime change when it attacked Iran, multiple Israeli security sources have said, with expectations that airstrikes could lead to a popular uprising having been driven by “wishful thinking” rather than hard intelligence… For this report the Guardian spoke to a number of serving and former Israeli defence and intelligence experts, including individuals who had played key roles in the country’s long fight against Iran’s nuclear programme.


Israeli Air Force Hits Taleghan Nuclear Compound Near Tehran

Roman Kohanets | United24 Media

The Israeli military (IDF) recently struck an Iranian nuclear site near Tehran that it described as supporting “critical capabilities” for nuclear weapons development, according to The Times of Israel on March 12.  The statement identified the site as the Taleghan compound. It was reported that the facility was hit during recent Israeli air force strikes in the Tehran area over the past few days.


Poland says foiled cyberattack on nuclear centre may have come from Iran

Reuters / Yahoo

Poland has foiled a cyberattack on its nuclear research centre and is examining signs that Iran may be behind it, ​the government said on Thursday, cautioning the indicators might ‌be a deliberate misdirection to hide the attackers’ true location. Poland says it has been the target of numerous cyberattacks since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in ​2022. Moscow has repeatedly denied involvement.


China’s nuclear warhead storage a ‘highly concentrated risk’, US report says

Liu Zhen | South China Morning Post

Most of China’s nuclear warheads are located at a single facility in the country’s northwest and could be vulnerable during a conflict, according to a US think tank. In a report published this month, the US Air University’s China Aerospace Studies Institute detailed the warhead management and logistical structure of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force.


Germany won't return to nuclear power, chancellor says

Jens Thurau | DW

At a nuclear summit near Paris earlier this week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the transition from nuclear energy undertaken by some EU countries as a "strategic mistake." Nuclear power, she said, is a "reliable, affordable source of low-emission electricity."  She announced new EU financial assistance for nuclear power plants. Von der Leyen's words reverberated in Germany, which switched off its last nuclear reactor in 2023.


United States nuclear weapons, 2026

Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, and Mackenzie Knight-Boyle | Federation of American Scientists / Bulletin of Atomic Scientists

The United States has embarked on a wide-ranging nuclear modernization program that will ultimately see every nuclear delivery system replaced with newer versions over the coming decades. In this issue of the Nuclear Notebook, we estimate that the United States maintains a stockpile of approximately 3700 warheads—an unchanged estimate from the previous year. Of these, only about 1770 warheads are deployed, while approximately 1930 are held in reserve.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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