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Proliferation News 3/17/26

IN THIS ISSUE: Revisiting Japan’s Non-Nuclear Principles: Between a Nuclear Allergy and Umbrella, Japan to join Trump's 'Golden Dome' project, expects missile requests, Why Iran strikes may drive Asian nuclear race, hit China in the Middle East: Zhao Tong, UK security adviser attended US-Iran talks and judged deal was within reach, AI power demand cracks resistance to nuclear power, It's Time: An open letter to Secretary Hegseth.

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Published on March 17, 2026

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Revisiting Japan’s Non-Nuclear Principles: Between a Nuclear Allergy and Umbrella 

Shizuka Kuramitsu | Carnegie Endowment  

Since 1967, three non-nuclear principles have guided Japan’s approach to nuclear weapons. They commit Japan to not (1) possess, (2) produce, or (3) allow nuclear weapons to enter into Japanese territory or territorial waters. In November 2025, Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae sparked a debate when she avoided clarifying that these principles would remain in the strategic documents to be reviewed by early 2026. She referred to the principles as “a policy guideline at this stage.” ... After Takaichi led the majority party to a massive victory in a snap election in February 2026, she committed to making “important policy shifts” including amending the Japanese Constitution. The election result may have also boosted her confidence to revisit the three non-nuclear principles. This article explores the potential risks and benefits of doing so. 


Japan to join Trump's 'Golden Dome' project, expects missile requests 

Tamiyuki Kihara and Yukiko Toyoda | Reuters 

Japan will inform the U.S. this week that it intends to join the "Golden Dome" missile defense initiative and expects that Washington may seek its help with missile production due to the Middle ‌East war and other conflicts, two sources said. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will announce the latest plan when she meets U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington D.C. at a leaders' summit on March 19, the Japanese government sources said, requesting anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. 


Why Iran strikes may drive Asian nuclear race, hit China in the Middle East: Zhao Tong 

Seong Hyeon Choi | South China Morning Post 

Carnegie nuclear policy expert says law of the jungle signalled by US actions could spur more countries to pursue nuclear weapons. ... Many Chinese strategists increasingly anticipate a more anarchic world governed by the law of the jungle, leaving China to rely primarily on its own material power. This perception is likely to reinforce China’s already extensive military build-up, including its nuclear capabilities. ... Countries such as South Korea and Japan, as well as some in Europe and the Middle East, may become more interested in developing hedging strategies. This could involve expanding capabilities in military-civilian dual-use technologies, causing the global non-proliferation regime to face greater challenges.  


UK security adviser attended US-Iran talks and judged deal was within reach 

Patrick Wintour and Julian Borger | The Guardian 

Britain’s national security adviser, Jonathan Powell, attended the final talks between the US and Iran and judged that the offer made by Tehran on its nuclear programme was significant enough to prevent a rush to war, the Guardian can reveal. Powell thought progress had been made in Geneva in late February and that the deal proposed by Iran was “surprising”, according to sources. Two days after the talks ended, and after a date had been agreed for a further round of technical talks in Vienna, the US and Israel launched the attack on Iran. 


AI power demand cracks resistance to nuclear power 

Amy Harder | Axios 

The AI boom is pushing one of America's most venerable environmental groups to cautiously support nuclear power after decades of resistance. The Natural Resources Defense Council's position is both a sign of the urgent power demands that AI is creating and a larger shift underway among environmentalists to embrace an energy source many once rallied against. The NRDC filed comments earlier this month in support of an early step toward restarting a nuclear power plant in Iowa that Google is planning to use for one of its data centers in the region. "This is unprecedented for us because it marks the first time in our history that we have taken action in support of an individual nuclear power plant," Manish Bapna, president and CEO of NRDC, told Axios in an exclusive interview.  


It's Time: An open letter to Secretary Hegseth 

Jordan Schneider | ChinaTalk 

Dear Mr. Secretary, On Friday you told reporters: “The only thing prohibiting transit in the straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping.” Fifteen days in, and the best we’ve got is the President asking the UK, France and even China to send warships. That’s not MAGA. That’s weakness. I have a solution that doesn’t require a single phone call to Xi. A solution that only President Trump could pull off, because only he has the vision, and the arsenal, to do it. We nuke us a canal. 

Editor’s Note: Please read the full article before you @ us. 

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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