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Proliferation News 3/5/26

IN THIS ISSUE: Israel and the US strike Iran. It is a tragedy of Tehran’s own making, Status of Iran's nuclear facilities remain unclear as attacks continue, Iran will target Israeli nuclear site if regime change is sought, Iranian official says, Russia says France's plan to expand its nuclear arsenal is destabilising, A Nuclear Reactor Backed by Bill Gates Gets Federal Approval to Start Building, Polymarket Takes Down Betting on Nuclear Detonation After Backlash

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Published on March 5, 2026

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Israel and the US strike Iran. It is a tragedy of Tehran’s own making

Nicole Grajewski | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Early on Saturday, Israel and the United States struck Iranian targets in Western, Central, and Southern Iran in a military campaign Israel named “Lion’s Roar,” reminiscent of—and arguably a continuation of—Operation Rising Lion last June. To those watching closely, this was not a surprise. The question was never whether a second campaign would come, but when and what it would look like.


Status of Iran's nuclear facilities remain unclear as attacks continue

Bill Hutchinson | ABC News

President Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff revealed in an interview this week that Iranian negotiators told him in the lead-up to the U.S.-Israeli military operation in Iran that they had enough enriched uranium to "make 11 nuclear bombs." But since the major combat operations were launched on Saturday with the intent of crushing Iran's nuclear ambitions, the administration has yet to publicly produce any concrete evidence on the whereabouts of the nuclear material or who is in control of it.


Iran will target Israeli nuclear site if regime change is sought, Iranian official says

Reuters / Yahoo

Iran will ​target the ‌Israeli nuclear ​site ​of Dimona if ⁠Israel ​and the ​U.S. seek regime change ​in ​the Islamic Republic, ‌semi-official ⁠ISNA news agency ​reported ​on ⁠Wednesday, citing ​an ​Iranian ⁠military official.


Russia says France's plan to expand its nuclear arsenal is destabilising

Reuters / Yahoo

Russia said on Wednesday that France's plan to expand its nuclear arsenal ‌was a highly destabilising move that posed a potential ‌threat to Moscow… Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, ‌speaking separately to reporters, said the ​French move vindicated Moscow's position ​that French and British ​nuclear weapons should be part of any ‌future negotiation on the global ​nuclear balance.


A Nuclear Reactor Backed by Bill Gates Gets Federal Approval to Start Building

Brad Plumer | The New York Times

A novel type of nuclear power plant in Wyoming backed by Bill Gates received a key federal permit on Wednesday, making it the first new U.S. commercial reactor in nearly a decade to receive clearance to begin construction. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the federal body that oversees reactor safety, unanimously voted to grant a construction permit to TerraPower, a start-up founded by Mr. Gates. TerraPower is one of several companies trying to build a new wave of smaller, advanced reactors meant to be easier to build than the large reactors of old.


Polymarket Takes Down Betting on Nuclear Detonation After Backlash

Sharon Zhang | Truthout

Polymarket archived a market on whether a nuclear bomb would be detonated by the end of this year, just days after the betting company faced criticism for allowing users to gamble on the commencement of the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran… The market allowed users to bet on whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated by the end of March, June, or the end of the year. At the time of his post, users had placed over $800,000 worth of bets on the question, with users predicting a 22 percent chance that one would be dropped by 2027.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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