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Proliferation News 4/14/26

IN THIS ISSUE: U.S. Is Negotiating an Iran Deal That Would Buy Time, Again, U.S. and Iran could hold new peace talks as soon as this week, sources say, Report: Russia warned Israel its air strikes near Bushehr nuclear power plant risked ‘major nuclear disaster’, Finland Plans Anti-Nuclear Weapons Declaration as It Lifts Ban, ‘No such thing as absolute safety’: Japan embraces nuclear post-Fukushima, How Much Has the War in Iran Depleted the U.S. Missile Supply?

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Published on April 14, 2026

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U.S. Is Negotiating an Iran Deal That Would Buy Time, Again 

David E. Sanger, Tyler Pager, and Farnaz Fassihi | The New York Times 

Just before Vice President JD Vance left Islamabad early Sunday morning, he described Iran and the United States as worlds apart, chiefly on the question of assurances that Iran can never build a nuclear weapon — “not just now, not just two years from now, but for the long term.” ... [T]he United States proposed a 20-year “suspension” of all nuclear activity. That would allow the Iranians to claim they had not permanently given up their right, under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, to produce their own nuclear fuel. In response, Iran renewed a proposal that it suspend nuclear activity for up to five years, according to two senior Iranian officials and one U.S. official. 


U.S. and Iran could hold new peace talks as soon as this week, sources say 

Garrett Haake, Gordon Lubold, Katherine Doyle and Chantal Da Silva | NBC News  

A new round of in-person talks between the United States and Iran could be held as early as this week, two people familiar with the ongoing negotiations told NBC News. It comes after talks led by Vice President JD Vance in Pakistan over the weekend failed to reach a peace agreement to end the war. Both Vance and President Donald Trump offered hope for future talks on Monday, even as U.S. forces launched a blockade barring ships from entering or exiting Iranian ports.  


Report: Russia warned Israel its air strikes near Bushehr nuclear power plant risked ‘major nuclear disaster’ 

Times of Israel 

Russia repeatedly warned Israel in recent weeks that it was risking a “major nuclear disaster” with its ongoing air strikes in close proximity to Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant, Israel’s Channel 12 reports. Moscow officials also told Israel that its attacks were endangering Russian experts and civilians at the civilian power plant, which Russia partly constructed and helps operate, and said the attacks were threatening bilateral relations. Heeding the warnings, the IDF changed its operating procedures in that area, clarified that it was unaware of the dangers, and said it had no intention of harming any Russian personnel, the report says. 


Finland Plans Anti-Nuclear Weapons Declaration as It Lifts Ban 

Kirsi Heikel | Bloomberg 

Finland plans to declare that it won’t station nuclear weapons on its territory in peacetime even as the Nordic country is changing its laws to allow such a move. The declaration brings Finland into line with other Nordic countries, which have issued similar proclamations. The move comes after a proposal last month to lift the country’s nuclear weapons restrictions sparked a divisive debate. The government will bring the declaration to debate in parliament before including it in Finland’s foreign and security policy report, Prime Minister Petteri Orpo told reporters in Helsinki on Friday. 


‘No such thing as absolute safety’: Japan embraces nuclear post-Fukushima 

Francisco "A.J." Camacho | E&E News  

Fifteen years ago, this mountainous region on Japan’s northeast coast suffered one of the world’s worst nuclear power accidents. ... But the country is now rapidly moving to restart nuclear power plants, as artificial intelligence increases electricity demand and foreign wars throttle natural gas supply. Japan relies on natural gas for 30 percent of its electricity, almost all of it imported. The Iran war has further helped the case for nuclear, which can displace some of the liquefied natural gas that is stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. ... This week, Japan will open its 16th reactor since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident — at a nuclear plant run by the same utility that oversaw Daiichi during the meltdown. 


How Much Has the War in Iran Depleted the U.S. Missile Supply? 

Garrett M. Graff | The New Yorker   

[T]he White House made clear in its National Security Strategy that the Administration hoped to avoid in the Middle East “the ‘forever wars’ that bogged us down in that region at great cost,” and [Elbridge] Colby’s office helped drive the Pentagon’s new National Defense Strategy, which came out in January and highlighted how the U.S. had been focused elsewhere in recent years as “all the while, China and its military grew more powerful in the Indo-Pacific region,” ... Now, with the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran in a fragile and uncertain ceasefire, it’s clear that there was something to Colby’s arguments all along. Despite spending more than eight hundred billion dollars a year on defense, the U.S. is uncomfortably short on key munitions, weapons platforms, and even some ships and planes after six weeks of fighting Trump’s war of choice in the Middle East. 

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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