Proliferation News 4/21/26
IN THIS ISSUE: I’m Sorry, Dave. I’m Afraid I Can’t De-escalate: On (AI) Wargaming and Nuclear War, NATO backs non-proliferation as global nuclear pacts come under strain, Trump: New deal with Iran will be better than old one, Tusk and Macron discuss joint nuclear exercises, China’s vast nuclear power sector now able to build 50 reactors at a time, What it could take for the U.S. to remove highly enriched uranium from Iran.
I’m Sorry, Dave. I’m Afraid I Can’t De-escalate: On (AI) Wargaming and Nuclear War
Ankit Panda and Andrew Reddie | War on the Rocks
Recent experiments placing large language models in simulated nuclear crises have produced alarming headlines. ... [I]nterpretations rest on a shared misunderstanding of what wargames are actually for and what role large language models can have in helping us understand the nature of nuclear crises and nuclear war. Put plainly, large language models playing wargames provide data on large language models, not on the human behavior that underpins conflict ... At the same time, nuclear strategists writing in the 21st century should pay heed to how their contributions can be absorbed into model corpuses given the many plausible, productive applications of large language models around wargaming. In other words, nuclear strategists today may have a responsibility to write with an eye to shaping how modern AI systems understand nuclear war.
NATO backs non-proliferation as global nuclear pacts come under strain
Victor Jack | Politico
NATO member countries will restate their support for the world's primary nuclear non-proliferation treaty as nuclear control efforts come increasingly under pressure, three NATO diplomats told POLITICO. Ambassadors from the military alliance's 32 members on Monday approved an official statement that will reiterate its backing for atomic arms control and the U.N.-backed Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), according to the diplomats, granted anonymity to speak freely.
Trump: New deal with Iran will be better than old one
Reuters
President Donald Trump said on Monday he believed a nuclear deal the U.S. is currently negotiating with Iran will be better than a 2015 international agreement to curb Tehran's nuclear program. "The DEAL that we are making with Iran will be FAR BETTER than the JCPOA, commonly referred to as 'The Iran Nuclear Deal',” Trump wrote in a social media post after concerns expressed by Democrats and some nuclear experts that he is rushing negotiations on a highly complex topic. During his first White House term, Trump in 2018 withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreed to by Iran, the United States and world powers, calling it "the worst deal ever."
Tusk and Macron discuss joint nuclear exercises
Victor Goury-Laffont | Politico
French and Polish leaders discussed holding joint exercises on Monday as part of a French-led effort to include allies in its nuclear deterrent. "Among the things we will consider there will be exchanges of information, joint exercises," French President Emmanuel Macron said at a news conference in the Polish port city of Gdańsk when asked about France working with Poland on nuclear issues. ... Poland, which doesn't take part in the U.S. nuclear-sharing program, is interested in firming up European deterrence against Russia. “We've decided to join a group of countries invited by France to cooperate,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. “An exclusive group made up of countries who understand the need for European sovereignty. We live in a world in which we need nuclear dissuasion capacities.”
China’s vast nuclear power sector now able to build 50 reactors at a time
He Huifeng | South China Morning Post
China has announced that it now has the capacity to build up to 50 nuclear reactors simultaneously, as it doubles down on a push to rapidly expand its nuclear power generation and become a global leader in the sector. The figure came from a report released by the China Nuclear Energy Association (CNEA) on Friday, which highlights the country’s ability to run dozens of nuclear projects concurrently spanning the full project life cycle – from design to construction. ... China aims to become a “strong country” in nuclear power by 2030, surpassing the United States in terms of total installed nuclear capacity and emerging as the world’s largest nuclear power producer by scale, according to the CNEA.
What it could take for the U.S. to remove highly enriched uranium from Iran
Cecilia Vega, Graham Messick, Michael Karzis | CBS News
The fate of the war between Iran and America hangs on just three letters: HEU — highly enriched uranium — an essential ingredient for nuclear weapons. [I]nternational inspectors have not been allowed to verify Iran's stockpile since last June, when the U.S. and Israel struck three nuclear sites. Over the last seven weeks of war, President Trump has insisted the U.S. will take whatever is left, whether with boots on the ground fighting their way in or striking a deal with the Iranian regime to allow scientists to safely secure the stockpile and bring it back to the United States. What you may not know — that option has been done before — in a high-stakes mission that could become the blueprint for how to get HEU out of Iran.
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