A More Dangerous Nuclear Age and Micronesia: The escalating arms race, the prospects of limited or tactical nuclear conflict, and the role of Micronesia

Ankit Panda | Pacific Center for Island Security

Micronesia is among the places on Earth where, within living memory, the mushroom clouds generated by nuclear weapons explosions have left their mark… As strategists in both Washington and Beijing grow increasingly fearful over the prospect of a conventional war between them—a war that neither side may want—the implications for Micronesia remain poorly understood and are hardly under substantial consideration in either capital. What is certain, however, is that the shadow of nuclear weapons would loom large over any substantial conventional conflict between the United States and China.

How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran

Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman | The New York Times

The black S.U.V. carrying Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived at the White House just before 11 a.m. on Feb. 11… U.S. and Israeli officials gathered first in the Cabinet Room, adjacent to the Oval Office… The presentation that Mr. Netanyahu would make over the next hour would be pivotal in setting the United States and Israel on the path toward a major armed conflict in the middle of one of the world’s most volatile regions. And it would lead to a series of discussions inside the White House over the following days and weeks, the details of which have not been previously reported, in which Mr. Trump weighed his options and the risks before giving the go-ahead to join Israel in attacking Iran.

Negotiators face huge task to close gaps in rival Iran peace proposals

Paul Adams | BBC

With minutes before a self-imposed deadline – and an unprecedented threat to wipe out Iran's "civilisation" - US President Donald Trump announced that a two-week ceasefire had been agreed to halt the war. The mediators, Pakistan, are due to host American and Iranian negotiators for talks in Islamabad, possibly as early as Friday. Many issues remain unresolved, starting with the basis of negotiations.

France plans 36 billion euro boost to rearmament, nuclear deterrent expansion

John Irish | Reuters / Yahoo

France plans to add a further 36 billion euros ($39 billion) to its defence spending between now and 2030 under an updated military planning law that expands its nuclear arsenal and boosts missile and drone stocks. The ​increase, proposed despite one of the euro zone's biggest budget deficits, reflects mounting security pressures from ‌wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and growing uncertainty over U.S. commitments to NATO under President Donald Trump.

Trump Hunt for Iran’s Uranium Hindered by Monitoring Disruption

Jonathan Tirone | Bloomberg

The US says it knows where Iran’s most sensitive nuclear material is buried and how to get it. The international inspectors who last saw the enriched uranium say that’s far from certain. With much of the world’s focus on the Strait of Hormuz and the fragile cease fire that has largely held for the past 48 hours, the disconnect highlights Washington’s shifting priorities in the war it started: No one can currently verify the location or condition of Iran’s full stockpile of highly enriched uranium, material that could be used in a weapon within days if further processed.

Preventing an Iranian Bomb Is Only Getting Harder

Eric Brewer | Foreign Policy

Once the war ends, Iran will almost certainly declare victory—and not without reason. Survival has been its primary objective, and so far it has succeeded. Although Iran has lost senior leaders, the regime remains intact while managing to impose real costs on the United States, the region, and the global economy. Yet Iran will nonetheless be significantly weakened and deeply aggrieved. Put simply: At the end of the war, Iran will still almost certainly have the core ingredients needed to build a bomb—and more incentive than ever to do so.