Breaking the Korean Peninsula Nuclear Stalemate

Asia-Pacific Leadership Network

A group of leading American and South Korean security experts and former senior officials has issued a joint statement and policy report ahead of the Trump-Xi summit on 14-15 May, calling on both leaders to place Korean Peninsula security on their bilateral agenda and to take urgent steps toward renewed engagement with North Korea.  ... In a significant policy shift, the statement calls on Washington and Seoul to pursue “stable coexistence” as the basis for negotiations with Pyongyang, moving away from previous frameworks centred on “denuclearisation” or a “nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.” The experts argue that while denuclearisation remains a desirable long-term outcome, it is most achievable within a stable coexistence framework rather than as a precondition for talks.

The Bomb is Back

Tong Zhao | China Books Review

In 1964, China joined the nuclear weapons club. For decades after, China maintained a small nuclear arsenal and cultivated a reputation for restraint in its nuclear ambitions. In recent years, though, China has embarked on a historic nuclear buildup. According to U.S. government assessments, its arsenal grew from about 200 warheads in 2019 to 600 by 2025, and will exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030. The opacity of China’s nuclear buildup has heightened anxiety among other states. This risks igniting a global arms race — or worse, nuclear war — and is one of the most consequential and least understood developments in world politics. History illuminates murky futures. To understand the dangers of China’s nuclear expansion, we must understand its origins. Three recent books offer distinct windows into the roots and trajectory of China’s nuclear program, and the dangers that lie ahead.

Trump calls Iran’s response to peace plan ‘totally unacceptable’ as ceasefire frays

Julian Borger | The Guardian

Donald Trump has rejected an Iranian response to a US peace proposal as “totally unacceptable”, on a day the month-old ceasefire showed signs of fraying as drone strikes were reported around the region and Benjamin Netanyahu warned the war was “not over”. The Iranian counter-proposal was passed to Washington through Pakistani mediators. ... According to the Wall Street Journal, the Iranian counter-proposal suggested a shorter moratorium, the export of part of the HEU stockpile and the dilution of the rest, and refusal to accept the dismantling of facilities.

Russia Slates Sarmat ICBM Deployment for Late 2026

The Moscow Times

Russia plans to deploy its new RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile later this year, the commander of Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces told President Vladimir Putin following a test launch on Tuesday morning. Colonel General Sergei Karakayev reported that the Sarmat was launched at 11:15 a.m. Moscow time, according to a Kremlin readout of their conversation.“The launch was successful, and the mission objectives were achieved,” Karakayev told Putin, adding that the test clears the way for Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces to station the first Sarmat-armed regiment at its Uzhur unit in the Krasnoyarsk region by the end of 2026.

Pentagon Shows Off Nuclear-Armed Submarine in Gibraltar

Lara Seligman | The Wall Street Journal

The Pentagon announced that a U.S. Navy nuclear-armed submarine has arrived in Gibraltar, a rare acknowledgement of the whereabouts of one of America’s most secretive weapons a day after President Trump forcefully rejected Iran’s latest peace offer. ... “The port visit demonstrates U.S. capability, flexibility, and continuing commitment to its NATO allies,” the Navy announced, adding that the submarine arrived in Gibraltar on Sunday.

The Fall 2022 Crisis

Colin Kahl | Defense & Security Analysis

This first-hand account by then-US Under Secretary of Defence for Policy, Colin Kahl, recalls how he helped manage the Fall 2022 Crisis with Russia. It is as such both a piece of evidence, as well as an interpretation of the events in late 2022. Kahl argues that US deterrence messaging, dissuading Moscow from potentially using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, appeared to break through at some point in the crisis. He also points to the potential effects of simultaneous messaging by US allies, by India and China. With the evidence from Ukraine in mind, Kahl concludes that as long as nuclear weapons exist, every great-power war carries the shadow of catastrophe. It is therefore the highest collective obligation of the international community to deter and deescalate the conflicts and conventional wars that could lead down this disastrous path.