Proliferation News 5/14/26
IN THIS ISSUE: U.S. Intelligence Shows Iran Retains Substantial Missile Capabilities, Energy secretary: Iran ‘frighteningly close’ to nuclear weapon despite Operation Epic Fury, US ramps nuclear weapons production to Cold War levels as China pursues ‘unprecedented’ buildup, A Russian ship sank in mysterious circumstances. It may have been carrying submarine nuclear reactors to North Korea, Americans Oppose AI Data Centers in Their Area, Russia and Iran: Partners in Defiance from Syria to Ukraine.
U.S. Intelligence Shows Iran Retains Substantial Missile Capabilities
Adam Entous, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan | The New York Times
The Trump administration’s public portrayal of a shattered Iranian military is sharply at odds with what U.S. intelligence agencies are telling policymakers behind closed doors, according to classified assessments from early this month that show Iran has regained access to most of its missile sites, launchers and underground facilities. Most alarming to some senior officials is evidence that Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the Strait of Hormuz, which could threaten American warships and oil tankers transiting the narrow waterway.
Energy secretary: Iran ‘frighteningly close’ to nuclear weapon despite Operation Epic Fury
Tanya Noury | MilitaryTimes
Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned on Wednesday that Iran is “frighteningly close” to obtaining a nuclear weapon, nearly three months after the United States launched a war to irrevocably halt the Islamic Republic from crossing that ominous Rubicon. Wright, referring to Iran’s current stock of nuclear material, told the Senate Armed Services Committee, “They are weeks — a small number of weeks — away to enrich that to weapons-grade uranium." But the energy secretary added that a months-long weaponization process would still be required beyond that point.
US ramps nuclear weapons production to Cold War levels as China pursues ‘unprecedented’ buildup
Morgan Phillips | Fox News
The U.S. is producing nuclear weapons at levels not seen since the Cold War, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told lawmakers Thursday, as officials warned of a rapidly expanding Chinese arsenal and growing nuclear threats from Iran. "Today, NNSA is delivering more new nuclear weapons and plutonium pits than at any time since the Cold War," Wright said during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, describing what he called a broader U.S. "nuclear renaissance." The ramp-up comes as China undertakes what lawmakers described as an "unprecedented" expansion of its nuclear forces, raising concerns in Washington about a shifting global balance of power.
Nick Paton Walsh, Natalie Wright, Pau Mosquera, Anna Chernova, Zachary Cohen | CNN
A Russian cargo ship likely carrying two nuclear reactors for submarines, possibly destined for North Korea, suffered a series of explosions and sank in unexplained circumstances, about 60 miles off the coast of Spain, a CNN investigation has found. The extraordinary fate of the Ursa Major has been shrouded in secrecy since it sank on December 23, 2024. But it may mark a rare and high-stakes intervention by a Western military to prevent Russia from sending an upgrade in nuclear technology to a key ally, North Korea, CNN reporting suggests. The ship set sail just two months after Kim Jong Un had sent troops to assist with Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Americans Oppose AI Data Centers in Their Area
Jeffrey M. Jones | Gallup
Seven in 10 Americans oppose constructing data centers for artificial intelligence in their local area, including nearly half, 48%, who are strongly opposed. Barely a quarter favor these projects, with 7% strongly in favor. ... The data center question parallels the wording Gallup uses to ask about local nuclear power plant construction. In the same March survey, 53% of Americans say they oppose building a nuclear energy plant in their area, far less than the 71% opposed to data center construction. Since Gallup first asked the nuclear power plant question in 2001, the high point in opposition has been 63%.
Russia and Iran: Partners in Defiance from Syria to Ukraine
Nicole Grajewski | Hurst Publishers
Drawing on extensive Russian and Persian primary sources, and interviews with elites from both countries, Nicole Grajewski uncovers the drivers of ever-closer cooperation between the Kremlin and the Islamic Republic. Detailing the internal structures, shared anxieties and broader ambitions underpinning this alignment, she explores the genesis of Russia and Iran’s mutual antagonism towards the Western-led global order; the impact of deep-seated leadership concerns over regime security and domestic protests; and the future trajectory of the partnership within the larger world order.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.