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Proliferation News 5/21/26

IN THIS ISSUE: Which is the Real Nuclear South Korea?, Exclusive: Supreme Leader says enriched uranium must stay in Iran, Iranian sources say, Ukraine bolsters border security as Russia says nuclear munitions sent to Belarus for exercises, China and Russia warn US Golden Dome poses ‘clear threat’ to stability, Australia kicks off $7.8 billion Collins-class submarine life extension, How Iran Got to the Nuclear Threshold on the Watch of Three U.S. Presidents.

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Published on May 21, 2026

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Which is the Real Nuclear South Korea? 

Adam Mount and Toby Dalton | Global NK 

There are two Koreas divided by nuclear weapons—both south of the 38th parallel. In the first Korea, government officials are pursuing capabilities to support a nuclear weapons option. [S]ome politicians and officials say they want to start a nuclear weapons program at some point in the future while others go along to keep their options open. The second Korea is pursuing identical capabilities ... but this Korea’s officials assert that these acquisitions have nothing to do with a nuclear weapons program. ... The only difference between the first two Koreas is the stated intention of the government in charge. The issue with nuclear latency is that when intentions change, a country’s nuclear status can also change quickly. How can we know which Korea is the real one? Is there even a difference?


Exclusive: Supreme Leader says enriched uranium must stay in Iran, Iranian sources say 

Parisa Hafezi and Rami Ayyub | Reuters 

Iran's Supreme Leader has issued a directive that the country's near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad, two senior Iranian sources said, hardening Tehran's stance on one of the main U.S. demands at peace talks. Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei's order could further frustrate U.S. President Donald Trump and complicate talks on ending the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Israeli officials have told Reuters that Trump has assured Israel that Iran's ‌stockpile of highly enriched uranium, needed to make an atomic weapon, will be sent out of Iran and that any peace deal must include a clause on this. 


Ukraine bolsters border security as Russia says nuclear munitions sent to Belarus for exercises 

CBS News 

Ukraine is implementing "enhanced security measures in the northern regions" near its border with Belarus as Russia holds joint nuclear drills with its close ally, for which Moscow says "nuclear munitions were delivered" to field storage facilities. ... Speaking Wednesday, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the alliance was monitoring the Russian-Belorussian exercises and warned that it's reaction to any Russian nuclear attack would be "devastating," according to the Kyiv Independent. 


China and Russia warn US Golden Dome poses ‘clear threat’ to stability 

Amber Wang | South China Morning Post  

China and Russia issued strong warnings over the US Golden Dome missile defence system and military deployments in the region in their latest joint statement, just days after a summit between Beijing and Washington aimed at stabilising Sino-American ties. The two countries accused the United States of posing “a clear threat to strategic stability” through its Golden Dome project in a joint statement issued after Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s summit on Wednesday. ... The statement is part of broader efforts by Beijing and Moscow to strengthen strategic coordination amid evolving relations between China, the United States and Russia. 


Australia kicks off $7.8 billion Collins-class submarine life extension 

Mike Yeo | Breaking Defense 

Australia will move ahead with plans to extend the lives of its Collins-class diesel electric submarines as an interim solution as it plans to transition to nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS pact. The Australian Department of Defence announced on Tuesday that the program will see government-owned ASC (formerly known as the Australian Submarine Corporation) receive a $11 billion AUD ($7.8 billion) Life Of Type Extension (LOTE) program that will see the six submarines remain in service until the 2040s, 20 years longer than initially planned. 


How Iran Got to the Nuclear Threshold on the Watch of Three U.S. Presidents 

Laurence Norman and Michael R. Gordon | Wall Street Journal  

President Trump is confronting a challenge with Iran’s nuclear program that is partly of his own making: a mountain of highly enriched uranium that Tehran has refused to hand over despite two months of war. Iran accumulated fissile material after Trump pulled out of a nuclear deal in 2018. It then accelerated its program ... during the Biden and second Trump administrations. ... The failure to contain Iran’s nuclear work isn’t Trump’s alone. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as President Barack Obama’s 2015 deal was known, delayed but didn’t shut the door on Iran’s potential pathway to a bomb. The Biden administration’s efforts to revive the 2015 accord and then negotiate a stronger follow-on accord were stymied.  

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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