Proliferation News 6/16/26
IN THIS ISSUE: U.S. and Iran Reach Agreement to Reopen Strait and Begin Nuclear Talks, Scoop: CIA director doubts Iran's intentions on deal, sources say, Exclusive: Iran sealed uranium cache and placed mines amid fears of US operation to seize material, How the US-Iran deal came together, Defense Minister: SSN Domestic Construction Not Yet Agreed with U.S., The Strange Defeat of Nuclear Deterrence
U.S. and Iran Reach Agreement to Reopen Strait and Begin Nuclear Talks
Jonathan Swan, Farnaz Fassihi, and Ronen Bergman | The New York Times
The United States and Iran declared on Sunday that they would cease hostilities for the next 60 days, the first major agreement between the two nations since the start of a war that has gripped the Middle East since late February. For now, however, they left unresolved the critical issue of whether and how Iran would agree to strict limits on its nuclear program.
Scoop: CIA director doubts Iran's intentions on deal, sources say
Barak Ravid | Axios
CIA Director John Ratcliffe told President Trump and other senior officials that evidence gathered by U.S. intelligence agencies raises serious doubts about Iran's willingness to make the nuclear concessions the U.S. is seeking in any final deal, according to three sources familiar with those discussions. Ratcliffe isn't the only skeptic in Trump's top team.
Exclusive: Iran sealed uranium cache and placed mines amid fears of US operation to seize material
Katie Bo Lillis, Davis Winkle, Zachary Cohen, and Natasha Bertrand | CNN
In recent weeks, Iran has dramatically escalated efforts to seal off its cache of near bomb-grade uranium, deliberately collapsing tunnels and booby-trapping entrances with explosive mines, according to five sources familiar with US intelligence… The new fortifications by the Iranians add an additional layer of complexity to the Trump administration’s proposed deal with Tehran to remove and destroy its uranium, and the move raises questions about who will take on the dangerous task of digging it out.
How the US-Iran deal came together
Andrew England and Humza Jilani | The Financial Times
For a few hours in Tehran, the Qatari mediators allowed themselves to believe the worst might be over. After weeks of shuttling between two bitter foes, and an exhausting day of talks with Iranian officials, the small delegation saw a deal coming together that would include: an extended ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a framework for nuclear talks… But getting it over the line meant bridging almost half a century of distrust, US President Donald Trump’s unpredictability and impatience for a quick result, and Tehran’s need for any compromise to look legitimate at home.
Defense Minister: SSN Domestic Construction Not Yet Agreed with U.S.
Kwon Soon-wan | The Chosun Daily
Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back stated on the 14th that the government’s push to introduce a nuclear-powered submarine (SSN) and its domestic construction has not been fully agreed upon with the U.S. side… Nonetheless, Ahn emphasized, “Building it in another country would be less efficient in terms of cost and technology,” adding, “Our consistent position is that it must be built domestically with our own hands and technology, and the U.S. side understands this process.”
The Strange Defeat of Nuclear Deterrence
Rose Gottemoeller | Foreign Affairs
Countries have long assumed that the possession of nuclear weapons was the surest guarantee of their security… But recent conflicts more clearly advertise the reverse… Nuclear weapons can appear impotent in the face of sustained conventional and hybrid attacks; in today’s warfare, an arsenal of nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles, a flotilla of nuclear submarines, and squadrons of strategic bombers can do little to deter salvos of cheap drones—as long as those nuclear states remain unwilling to use their weapons. That should give pause to both existing nuclear powers and those that may want to acquire the weapons.
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