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Proliferation News October 1, 2026

IN THIS ISSUE: Russia sends nuclear warning to NATO as tensions rise in the Baltic, Trump threatens to 'blow up' Iran as talks stall, Nuclear arms, nuclear subs: Japan's defense minister wants every option on the table, General Matter submits licence application for enrichment plant, The Manhattan Project Mindset: How Nuclear Analogies Are Steering AI Policy Off Course, Hinkley Point C completes 620-metre tunnel for fish

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Published on October 1, 2026

Proliferation News

Proliferation News is a biweekly newsletter highlighting the latest analysis and trends in the nuclear policy community.

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Russia sends nuclear warning to NATO as tensions rise in the Baltic

Lili Bayer and Mark Trevelyan | Reuters/Yahoo

Russia has warned NATO it would be ready to resort to nuclear weapons if the Western alliance attempted to cut off Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave that borders the Baltic Sea. In a document sent to NATO and seen by Reuters, Moscow accused the ‌alliance of a "dangerous and reckless course" that entailed "high risks of the outbreak of a direct armed conflict". … "Russia will be ready to use the entire arsenal of forces and capabilities at its disposal, including nuclear weapons, in order to defend its territory should NATO countries undertake any attempt aimed ​at isolating the Kaliningrad Region from the rest of the country," the diplomatic note said.  

Trump threatens to 'blow up' Iran as talks stall

Milena Walde | Politico

U.S. President Donald Trump said Wednesday he would decide “very soon” whether to “blow up” Iran, as Tehran said it had received Washington’s formal response to its proposal to end the seven-month war. “We have to make that decision: We blow them up or make a deal,” Trump told reporters at an Oval Office press briefing. Asked how he planned to negotiate with Iranian officials, Trump replied: “Maybe you blow them up.”

Nuclear arms, nuclear subs: Japan’s defense minister wants every option on the table

Bill Gertz | The Washington Times

Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi this week again urged his government to urgently debate acquiring nuclear weapons amid growing nuclear threats from China. The minister said during a three-hour television interview that Tokyo also should consider acquiring nuclear-powered submarines to bolster its limited but modernizing self-defense forces. … “Regarding the issue of nuclear weapons [and Japan’s Three Non-Nuclear Principles], and presumably the issue of nuclear-powered submarines, I think these are things that previously were difficult to discuss. My position is that we should discuss them without taboos and without excluding options,” Mr. Koizumi said.

General Matter submits licence application for enrichment plant

World Nuclear News |September 29, 2026

A licence application has been submitted to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission by General Matter for its proposed commercial uranium enrichment facility in Paducah, Kentucky. … It said the first licence application "was filed under 10 CFR Part 70, the standard federal process for uranium enrichment licenses, to produce special nuclear material at our facility in Paducah, Kentucky. Next year, we intend to submit an amendment to produce High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU)".

The Manhattan Project Mindset: How Nuclear Analogies Are Steering AI Policy Off Course

Rebecca Gibbons | War on the Rocks

Analogies for artificial intelligence abound. In recent years, analysts have likened the development of AI to the advent of electricity, the Industrial Revolution, contact with extraterrestrials, and at least fifty other things. One analogy, however, appears to have won out over the rest: AI is like nuclear weapons. This comparison is now ubiquitous in government rhetoric, policy debates, and media accounts about AI. The risks of advanced AI are equated with the existential risk posed by nuclear weapons. There are several references to AI development as a modern-day Manhattan Project. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review’s 2024 Annual Report to Congress recommended “a Manhattan Project-like program dedicated to racing to and acquiring” advanced AI. In February 2025, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright called the present AI race, “Manhattan Project 2.”


Hinkley Point C completes 620-metre tunnel for fish

World Nuclear News | October 1, 2026
A tunnel boring machine has finished digging a 620-metre tunnel which will form part of Hinkley Point C's system for returning fish to the sea. … In addition, there is also an innovative 'fish disco' system of underwater acoustics being planned to keep fish away from the water intake areas. Finally, there is the fish return system to transfer fish that do enter the system back to the sea. Taken together, EDF says that the GBP700 million (USD955 million) fish protection systems mean the new plant will have more fish protection measures than any other power plant in the world.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

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