Trade never clears incrementally. It only clears systemically, and external imbalances are always, and must always be, perfectly consistent with internal imbalances.

The main focus of China’s economic policy continues to be a high dependence on exports to maintain growth, rather than any demand side program.

As consumers and businesses continue to hold off on spending and investment, deflationary pressures deepen, further depressing prices and economic activity.

It will require many years of real determination by Beijing to drive the role of consumption to much higher levels if China is to rebalance in a nondisruptive way.

While the new strategy benefits local governments and wealthy homeowners, it has different implications for China’s middle- and low-income populations.

Because of the way credit expansion is managed, monetary expansion in China is directed mainly toward the supply side of the economy.

Banks and other fixed-income investors are buying long-date government bonds because the economy is struggling and better alternatives don’t exist.

Ignoring the problems of its historical precedents won’t make China’s success any more likely.

Almost everyone in economic policymaking circles is concerned about China’s high and rising debt burden, but there is little evidence that this is likely to change much in 2024.

Beijing’s unwillingness to boost the consumption share of GDP is not as bizarre as it seems.