Commentary
The demands of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, demographic problems, and public hostility toward Central Asians mean Russia does not have enough workers.
Salavat Abylkalikov
{
"authors": [],
"type": "pressRelease",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "ctw",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "russia",
"programs": [
"Russia and Eurasia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Caucasus",
"Georgia"
],
"topics": [
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
REQUIRED IMAGE
Press Release
Charting a future for Georgia in uncertain times
Georgia is entering a period of political transition and will have a new constitution after parliamentary and presidential elections in 2012 and 2013. While the current government has made progress in building a functioning state, the country’s economic situation is increasingly uncertain.
Published on Jun 13, 2011
WASHINGTON—Georgia is entering a period of political transition and will have a new constitution after parliamentary and presidential elections in 2012 and 2013. While the current government has made progress in building a functioning state, the country’s economic situation is increasingly uncertain.
In a new report, Thomas de Waal examines the challenges facing Georgia and argues that the government must start building institutions and choose a long-term development model after years of governing in an informal and improvisational way. The governing elite has no serious domestic political opposition and risks turning Georgia into a one-party state.
Models for Georgia’s Future:
- The “old Georgia” model: This conservative option representing the country’s traditional value system and way of doing business offers little as an economic or political model.
- The “Singapore” model: Opening Georgia to worldwide investment enjoys support, especially from an influential libertarian group seeking greater deregulation. But with foreign investment falling, this model does little to solve problems like rural poverty and high unemployment
- The EU model: A comprehensive free trade agreement with the European Union would offer privileged access to the EU single market in return for institutional reform. Although a painful process, this is Georgia’s best hope for long-term development.
“Georgia now faces real dilemmas whose resolution will determine how the country develops,” de Waal writes. “Greater integration with the EU will not deliver an economic miracle to Georgia, but having a European anchor would ensure greater political stability for Georgia, which in turn would benefit the economy.”
NOTES
Click here to read the full report
Thomas de Waal is a senior associate in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment, specializing primarily in the South Caucasus region comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia and their breakaway territories, as well as the wider Black Sea region.
The Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Program has, since the end of the Cold War, led the field on Eurasian security, including strategic nuclear weapons and nonproliferation, development, economic and social issues, governance, and the rule of law.
Press Contact: Karly Schledwitz, +1 202 939 2233, pressoffice@ceip.org
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
- Could Migrants From India and Africa Solve Russia’s Labor Shortage?
- Russian Market Sours for Belarusian State CompaniesCommentary
Minsk’s faith in the future of its larger neighbor’s economy is fading as Belarusian firms in Russia see record losses.
Olga Loiko
- Did Putin Return From China Empty-Handed?Commentary
With no key agreement signed on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, there is a risk that the window of opportunity for Russia will close if Chinese power generation becomes so green that new gas sources are no longer of any interest to Beijing.
Alexander Gabuev
- What Does Central Europe’s Post-Orban Russia Policy Look Like?Commentary
Though Orban is gone, Putin can still count on some like-minded individuals in Central and Eastern Europe. However, they will seek to avoid open confrontation with EU institutions over Ukraine and their ties with Moscow.
Dimitar Bechev
- Are Russia-Japan Relations Really Warming Up?Commentary
The truth is that Japan’s government is seeking a degree of reengagement but at a vastly reduced level than under Abe. Most significantly, Japan has shown no willingness to ease sanctions.
James D.J. Brown
