Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia are caught in between Russia and the EU, building ties with the latter even as the former seeks to maintain influence there and deter the West.
The ongoing state of war and uncertain future mean that the Russian elites cannot make long-term plans, which encourages them to flout the old rules, live for today, and undertake power moves to score a win against their rivals.
Carnegie Politika podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Mark Galeotti, director of Mayak Intelligence, and Vera Mironova, an associate fellow at Harvard's Davis Center, to discuss the consequences of the March 22 terrorist attack on a Moscow concert hall and its consequences for regime stability.
Putin is more likely to promote people in their forties than older generations who have been in power for too long and can envisage life without him. But Russia doesn’t have enough young administrators ready to replace those in their sixties.
The formation in Russia of a new concept of “fairness” is testament to how long the war in Ukraine is expected to continue. The “special military operation” is fast approaching a way of life.
Russia’s economy is being revved up by the Kremlin’s wartime priorities. Having largely completed an adjustment to the Western sanctions regime, the economy has stabilized but is now more dependent on oil prices. This hard-won stability may last a long time, but it is not eternal.
Rather than radical anti-terrorist measures or some kind of “retribution against Ukraine,” the return of the death penalty and a stricter migration policy are being touted as possible responses to the attack at Crocus City Hall. But neither of those initiatives is guaranteed or imminent.
