The bulk of the current analysis of the attacks on refineries is celebratory, with a strong element of confirmation bias—and that is a classical folly that prevents learning. Russia’s refining sector, unlike its Black Sea Fleet, has proven to be resilient to the recent type of attacks, rather than the Achilles’ heel of the Russian economy that many were hoping it would be.
Carnegie Politika podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Mark Galeotti, director of Mayak Intelligence, and Vera Mironova, an associate fellow at Harvard's Davis Center, to discuss the consequences of the March 22 terrorist attack on a Moscow concert hall and its consequences for regime stability.
If the scale of Ukrainian drone attacks is maintained at the levels of March and Russian air defenses do not improve, Ukraine will be able to keep damaging Russian refineries faster than they can be fixed, slowly but steadily eroding the country’s refining capacity.
The suspected shooters in the Crocus City attack were Tajiks, which has caused a backlash against labor migrants in Russia. Relations between Tajikistan and Russia, however, are unlikely to be impacted.
Rather than radical anti-terrorist measures or some kind of “retribution against Ukraine,” the return of the death penalty and a stricter migration policy are being touted as possible responses to the attack at Crocus City Hall. But neither of those initiatives is guaranteed or imminent.
An ageing Russian ruler surrounded by sycophants may embark on even more reckless moves in coming years
Despite their bloody history and repeated recent disappointments, a long-term accommodation between Armenia and Azerbaijan is within reach.
