Forecasting the future is a notoriously difficult but necessary part of policymaking. Using our conference app, this session harnessed both expert judgement and the wisdom of crowds to gather opinions in real time about the global nuclear future. Topics included the fate of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and the future of the putative nuclear ban treaty. The results of a similar forecasting exercise at the 2015 conference were also be revealed.
Moderator
James M. Acton, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Panelists
Angela Kane, Vienna Center for Disarmament and Nonproliferation
Laura Kennedy, World Affairs Council
Bruno Tertrais, Foundation for Strategic Research
Ramesh Thakur, Center for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, Australian National University
Results
Before the session, the panelists responded to six forecasting questions about nuclear events over the next two years. During the session, the audience responded to the same questions using the conference app. Here are all the forecasts, which we will compare to reality at the 2019 conference:
What is the likelihood that, by 21 March 2019, the United Nations General Assembly will have adopted a treaty to ban nuclear weapons?
Panelists’ responses
Kane: 75%
Kennedy: 90%
Tertrais: 90%
Thakur: 60%
Panelists’ average: 79%
Panelists’ standard deviation: 12%
Audience responses
Number of respondents: 281
Audience average: 33%
Audience standard deviation: 30%
What is the likelihood that, by 21 March 2019, India will be a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group?
Panelists’ responses
Kane: 55%
Kennedy: 40%
Tertrais: 10%
Thakur: 15%
Panelists’ average: 30%
Panelists’ standard deviation: 18%
Audience responses
Number of respondents: 266
Audience average: 40%
Audience standard deviation: 24%
What is the likelihood that, by 21 March 2019, one or more of the parties to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action will have renounced or suspended participation in the agreement?
Panelists’ responses
Kane: 15%
Kennedy: 35%
Tertrais: 30%
Thakur: 20%
Panelists’ average: 25%
Panelists’ standard deviation: 8%
Audience responses
Number of respondents: 249
Audience average: 31%
Audience standard deviation: 22%
What is the likelihood that, by 21 March 2019, the United States government will have publicly assessed that North Korea has deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, or both?
Panelists’ responses
Kane: 85%
Kennedy: 60%
Tertrais: 25%
Thakur: 35%
Panelists’ average: 51%
Panelists’ standard deviation: 23%
Audience responses
Number of respondents: 236
Audience average: 52%
Audience standard deviation: 27%
What is the likelihood that, by 21 March 2019, Russia and/or the United States will have renounced or suspended participation in the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty?
Panelists’ responses
Kane: 60%
Kennedy: 60%
Tertrais: 45%
Thakur: 50%
Panelists’ average: 54%
Panelists’ standard deviation: 6%
Audience responses
Number of respondents: 217
Audience average: 41%
Audience standard deviation: 24%
What is the likelihood that, by 21 March 2019, the United States will have adopted an explicit policy of developing ballistic missile defenses to defend the U.S. homeland against China?
Panelists’ responses
Kane: 10%
Kennedy: 20%
Tertrais: 20%
Thakur: 30%
Panelists’ average: 20%
Panelists’ standard deviation: 7%
Audience responses
Number of respondents: 211
Audience average: 28%
Audience standard deviation: 23%
Results from 2015
We conducted a similar exercise at the 2015 conference. Here are the forecasts by the panelists and the audience, as well as the actual outcomes.
Is there a likelihood of more than 50% that, by March 24, 2017, either Russia or the United States will suspend its participation in, withdraw from, or announce its intention to withdraw from either the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) or the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty?
Outcome: No
Panelists
Yes: 2
No: 2
Audience
Yes: 38%
No: 62%
Is there a likelihood of more than 50% that, by March 24, 2017, India will become a participant in the Nuclear Suppliers Group?
Outcome: No
Panelists
Yes: 1
No: 3
Audience
Yes: 37%
No: 63%
Is there a likelihood of more than 50% that, by March 24, 2017, North Korea will conduct at least one more nuclear test?
Outcome: Yes
Panelists
Yes: 3
No: 1
Audience
Yes: 91%
No: 9%
Is there a likelihood of more than 50% that, by March 24, 2017, at least one Annex II state that has yet to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty will do so?
Outcome: No
Panelists
Yes: 0
No: 4
Audience
Yes: 37%
No: 63%