{
"authors": [
"Alexey Malashenko"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Gulf",
"Levant",
"Middle East",
"Iraq",
"Syria",
"Caucasus",
"Russia"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform",
"Security",
"Religion"
]
}
Many North Caucasus natives have joined the Islamic State, and some are returning home. If the socioeconomic and political situation in the region deteriorates and popular discontent increases, this may lead former Islamic State fighters to join the armed struggle.
Source: Mark News
In September 2014, the terrorist organization known as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) announced that it was ready “to start a war in Chechnya” and even “liberate Chechnya” and the entire Caucasus. Its ambitions clearly exceeded its capabilities, however, as this has not yet happened.
In fact, rather than ISIS bringing the war to the Caucasus, many Caucasus fighters have joined the war in the Middle East. While it is hard to determine exactly how many Caucasus natives – and Chechens specifically – are fighting for ISIS, many suggest there could be close to 2,000.Well-known Chechen dissident Mairbek Vatchagaev, who was once former Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov’s special envoy, puts the total number of Chechens fighting for ISIS at 1,500, but claims that only 150 of them came directly from Chechnya. The rest, he believes, came from the Middle East and Europe. (France is home to 35,000 Chechens, and it is estimated that Norway is home to close to 10,000). Some reports also suggest that 200 fighters from Dagestan have joined ISIS.
Members of the Caucasus Emirate, an extremist organization established in 2007 in the North Caucasus, have also started moving to the Middle East to fight for ISIS. Ali Abu Mukhammad, leader of the Caucasus Emirate, expressed his dismay with this development, saying that although the decision on where to wage jihad – in the Middle East or Russia – is up to individual fighters, “brothers” ought to return to the North Caucasus “to start a war in Russia’s southern regions.”
Some Caucasus natives will return home. Some are returning already. They are not, however, doing so at Abu Mukhammad’s request – they are returning due to increased tensions within ISIS. Ethnic conflicts have recently flared up, including clashes between Chechen and Uzbek militants, and the position of ISIS leadership is quite incoherent. Many in ISIS also fear that the U.S.-led international coalition may start a large-scale military operation against the group in March.
The return of a few dozen fighters is unlikely to have a material effect on the already aggravated violent situation in the Caucasus anyway. The daring assault on Grozny perpetrated by a group of militants on December 4 remains the most high-profile terrorist attack in the last two months, but there have been many other incidents involving the members of the terrorist underground in the North Caucasus in that period: Police forces killed three militants in Ingushetia at the end of December, two militants implicated in the Grozny attack were killed in Chechnya a month after, and several police officers died in clashes with militants in Dagestan in January.
Going forward, a lot will depend on the socioeconomic and political situation in the North Caucasus. Its rapid deterioration is bound to increase popular discontent, which may lead more people, including returning ISIS fighters, to join the armed struggle.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
The hyper-personalized new version of global sphere-of-influence politics that Donald Trump wants will fail, as it did for Russia. In the meantime, Europe must still deal with a disruptive former ally determined to break the rules.
Thomas de Waal
Between Greenland and U.S. interference in Europe’s democracies, transatlantic relations risk rising to an unprecedented level of crisis. Amid continued arguments on how Brussels should react, tough times lie ahead for European leaders.
Marc Pierini
2026 has started in crisis, as the actions of unpredictable leaders shape an increasingly volatile global environment. To shift from crisis response to strategic foresight, what under-the-radar issues should the EU prepare for in the coming year?
Thomas de Waal
A renewal of relations between France and Turkey is vital to strengthen European strategic autonomy. To make this détente a reality, Paris and Ankara should move beyond personal friction and jointly engage with questions of Black Sea security.
Romain Le Quiniou
Europe is designing a new model of collective security that no longer relies on the United States. For this effort to succeed, solidarity between member states that have different threat perceptions is vital.
Erik Jones