Commentary
Uri Dadush
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Source: Getty
In The Media
Ireland and the European Debt Crisis
The enormous expansion of credit in Ireland and the sheer size of its building boom, which was accompanied by a very large loss of competitiveness, are at the center of the country's crisis today.
By Uri Dadush
Published on Nov 16, 2010
Source: The Diane Rehm Show
Irish officials are currently resistant to the idea of a bailout because they fear the conditions that will accompany the financial assistance. Dadush said that these conditions may include raising Ireland’s corporate tax rate, which is about half that of most European economies that compete with Ireland for foreign investment.
However, it is very difficult to see how Ireland can get out of the debt trap. Even if it manages to balance the budget, interest rates remain high and public debt is rising at a very rapid rate, Dadush said.
Dadush pointed out that the far greater worry is the risk of contagion to other large, vulnerable Euro area economies, such as Spain and possibly Italy. European authorities are aware of this risk, making the bailout inevitable. The bailout will likely take the form of direct loans to the Irish government, a significant part of which will go to recapitalizing the banking system. Even if the current crisis is managed, Dadush concluded, a whole new institutional mechanism will have to be put in place to avoid a repeat of the crisis.
About the Author
Uri Dadush
Former Senior Associate, International Economics Program
Dadush was a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He focuses on trends in the global economy and is currently tracking developments in the eurozone crisis.
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Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
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