Source: Chinalogue

In an extended interview with Susan Osman of the Blue Ocean Network's Chinalogue, Carnegie’s Lora Saalman and Fan Jishe of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences discussed U.S.-China relations, the future and potential of arms reductions, and proliferation dynamics in Iran and North Korea.

Saalman cast efforts to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon as a necessarily troubled effort to enforce a double standard. The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council are all nuclear weapon states and they struggle when trying to argue that other nations ought to not develop weaponization programs, Saalman said. She argued that the bellicose rhetoric of the nation’s leaders, the potential for a cascade effect in an already volatile region, and concern about nuclear blackmail are reasons for particular concern when considering the possibility of a nuclear Iran. Jishe noted the challenge of distinguishing between a uranium enrichment program intended for peaceful purposes and one with a military bent.

Jishe and Saalman also examined North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and China’s efforts to convince Pyongyang to engage in negotiations on the denuclearization of the peninsula. Saalman emphasized U.S. concerns about North Korean assistance for future nuclear programs, noting past cooperation with Iran, Syria, and Pakistan.

Saalman and Jishe discussed the need for reconsideration of nuclear arsenals and postures in the post-Cold War period as well. Saalman described the New START treaty mostly reinforcing extant transparency and verification measures. Given the acrimonious debate over New START, though, she predicted that more ambitious efforts will likely face considerable backlash.