Commentary
Dmitri Trenin
{
"authors": [
"Dmitri Trenin"
],
"type": "commentary",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"North America",
"United States",
"East Asia",
"China",
"Japan"
],
"topics": [
"Security",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
Commentary
PLA and the Pentagon: Get Connected!
The intensification of the Sino-Japanese standoff in the East China Sea calls for better communication between the Chinese People’s Liberation Army and the Pentagon.
Published on Dec 2, 2013
Of the events that happened last week, one of the most important was the Chinese imposition of an air defense notification zone over the Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea, claimed by China but held by the Japanese who call them Senkaku. The obvious change in the status quo in the disputed area provoked an immediate U.S. reaction in the form of two unarmed B-52 bombers flying over the islands, ignoring the Chinese demand for prior notification. The Japanese and the South Koreans followed up by sending their own warplanes. Even though later the Obama administration told U.S. commercial airlines to follow Beijing’s requirements, the situation in the East China Sea has acquired a new, more worrisome quality.
The loose war talk is getting louder in China, and war fears are getting higher in Japan, where for the first time since WWII a National Security Council is being formed and a secrets act has been passed. It is still incredible that the two countries which are linked by a vibrant trade relationship and hundreds of flights per day can actually go to war, but tensions are rising, not subsiding. The United States, by its bold move, has sought to restore the status quo, but it has also raised the stakes for itself and for China as the two countries are making their points regarding their respective strategic positions in the Western Pacific.
At minimum, the intensification of the Sino-Japanese standoff in the East China Sea calls for better communication between the People’s Liberation Army and the Pentagon. While China and the United States are not in the Cold War bind like the United States and the Soviet Union once were, they would benefit from having agreements preventing incidents in the air and at sea. The practice of breaking off contact between the Chinese and U.S. militaries in response to some political moves is fraught with dangers of misperception, miscalculation and, eventually, a collision. The world has had its share of big fear over Cuba and Berlin. It need not revisit it in Asia.
About the Author
Dmitri Trenin
Former Director, Carnegie Moscow Center
Trenin was director of the Carnegie Moscow Center from 2008 to early 2022.
- Mapping Russia’s New Approach to the Post-Soviet Space
- What a Week of Talks Between Russia and the West RevealedCommentary
Dmitri Trenin
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Europe
- Letter from the Editor: Europe Takes Two Steps Forward But One Step BackCommentary
As we close out another season of Strategic Europe, it is worth taking stock of the deep shifts underway.
Rym Momtaz
- Assessing Information Ecosystems: How Governments Can Get Ahead of Hybrid ThreatsPaper
The hybrid warfare landscape is evolving rapidly, leaving policymakers without clear strategies. To better inform their work in addressing emerging challenges, governments must dig deeper into the underlying dynamics at play.
Raluca Csernatoni, Alicia Wanless
- Taking the Pulse: Are the EU’s Watered-Down Russia Sanctions Better than None?Commentary
The EU had to compromise to adopt a twenty-first sanctions package against Russia, exposing growing cracks in the union’s resolve. Is this latest, weaker round worth it to keep pressure on Moscow?
Rym Momtaz, ed.
- Why Europe Must Take Charge of its Russia Diplomacy NowCommentary
Trump is distracted and Ukraine wants Europe to step up. The continent’s leaders must find their voice and assert it in talks with Russia.
Alissa de Carbonnel
- Why Russia Could Escalate Hybrid Warfare Against EuropeCommentary
Mounting economic strain and battlefield losses will not necessarily make the Kremlin less dangerous. They could instead push Moscow toward a more aggressive hybrid campaign designed to test NATO’s Eastern flank, exploit allied hesitation, and fracture European resolve.
Maksym Beznosiuk
