Commentary
The war in Ukraine is costing Russia its leverage overseas. Across the South Caucasus and Middle East, this presents an opportunity for Europe to pick up the pieces and claim its own sphere of influence.
William Dixon, Maksym Beznosiuk
{
"authors": [
"Alexey Malashenko",
"Ulrich Speck"
],
"type": "commentary",
"centerAffiliationAll": "",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center"
],
"collections": [
"Inside Russia"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center",
"programAffiliation": "",
"programs": [],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"Russia"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform"
]
}
Source: Getty
Commentary
How Will Nemtsov’s Murder Change Political Life in Russia?
In the wake of the murder of one of Russia’s most fervent opposition leaders, Boris Nemtsov, Russia remains less in a state of shock than in a state of confusion about what this means for the country’s future. Eurasia Outlook asked Carnegie’s experts to share their thoughts on how the event will change political life in Russia.
Published on Mar 3, 2015
In the wake of the murder of one of Russia’s most fervent opposition leaders, Boris Nemtsov, Russia remains less in a state of shock than in a state of confusion about what this means for the country’s future. Eurasia Outlook asked Carnegie’s experts to share their thoughts on how the event will change political life in Russia.
Alexey MalashenkoScholar in residence, Carnegie Moscow Center’s Religion, Society, and Security Program
Politicians and ideologues are passionately expressing their views on who killed one of the most prominent, non-system opposition activists, Boris Nemtsov, and why. Though they try to conceal their bewilderment at what has transpired. Several theories are circulating. Vladimir Putin and many others say that the murder was a provocation; some even see a hand of Western special services behind it. There are also those who claim the murder resulted from a routine argument…
But in another few days a different question will emerge. People will ask how Nemtsov’s death will impact the general situation in Russia, particularly as it relates to the opposition movement. As cynical as it might seem, this question, however tacitly, is already present in the minds of politicians.
It is disconcerting to hear that this murder is described as a “provocation,” but the opinion that it is unquestionably a political killing does not sound foolproof either. All this provides fertile ground for any suspicions, including the ones implicating Nemtsov’s associates—especially in light of the fact that the regime would not really have much to gain from his death.
Nemtsov’s disappearance will not affect the big politics. As one expert has already noted, the president did not consider the late Nemtsov to be his enemy but rather “some dot somewhere in the background.” On the other hand, this death will really upset the Russian propagandists who made the colorful opposition leader one of their favorite targets. As a matter of fact, I am sure that the TV spin doctors will now zero in on the theory of “internal squabbles” within the ranks of the non-system opposition.
As for the opposition itself, it is unlikely to be substantially restructured. It will remain as incoherent as before and will pose no threat to the regime. Apparently, Nemtsov was its only charismatic member. At the very least, he got recognized and would have certainly accomplished more under a different, more normal political system.
Ulrich SpeckVisiting scholar, Carnegie Europe
The killing of Boris Nemtsov will make it almost impossible for Russia to return to the path of Europeanization under the current government. Even if Putin made a U-turn in Ukraine, which is highly improbable, the murder of a prominent opposition leader in one of most surveilled places in the world—the area immediately surrounding Kremlin—pushes EU-Europe and Russia further apart.
Whatever the circumstances of the killing were, most Western governments and publics will conclude that the Russian government must have either had a hand in it or at least contributed to it by creating an atmosphere of hatred and witch-hunting. The small amount of trust that remained after the attack on Ukraine has now been destroyed. For most Europeans, Putin’s Russia is not going to be a partner anymore; EU-Europe and Russia are drifting further apart.
In the past, the prospect of Europeanization limited the Kremlin’s political options what Berlin or Paris or London have thought was important to the Russian government. If this limitation is now gone, the Russian government may act with less restraint in the future in both foreign and domestic affairs. Instead of moving closer to liberal democracy, as the advocates of Europeanization had hoped, the Kremlin may choose to continue to march in the opposite direction.
About the Authors
Alexey Malashenko
Former Scholar in Residence, Religion, Society, and Security Program
Malashenko is a former chair of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Religion, Society, and Security Program.
Ulrich Speck
Former Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Europe
Speck was a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, where his research focuses on the European Union’s foreign policy and Europe’s strategic role in a changing global environment.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Europe
- Russia’s Imperial Retreat Is Europe’s Strategic Opportunity
- Is the Radical-Right Threat Existential or Overstated?Commentary
Amid increased polarization and the influence of disinformation, radical-right parties are once again gaining traction across Europe. With landmark elections on the horizon in several countries, are the EU’s geostrategic vision and fundamental values under existential threat?
Catherine Fieschi, Cas Mudde
- Taking the Pulse: Is France’s New Nuclear Doctrine Ambitious Enough?Commentary
French President Emmanuel Macron has unveiled his country’s new nuclear doctrine. Are the changes he has made enough to reassure France’s European partners in the current geopolitical context?
Rym Momtaz, ed.
- The EU Needs a Third Way in IranCommentary
European reactions to the war in Iran have lost sight of wider political dynamics. The EU must position itself for the next phase of the crisis without giving up on its principles.
Richard Youngs
- Can Europe Still Matter in Syria?Commentary
Europe’s interests in Syria extend beyond migration management, yet the EU trails behind other players in the country’s post-Assad reconstruction. To boost its influence in Damascus, the union must upgrade its commitment to ensuring regional stability.
Bianka Speidl, Hanga Horváth-Sántha
