Paper
Douglas H. Paal
{
"authors": [
"Douglas H. Paal"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Carnegie China"
],
"collections": [
"China’s Foreign Relations",
"U.S.-China Relations"
],
"englishNewsletterAll": "asia",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "AP",
"programs": [
"Asia"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"North America",
"United States",
"East Asia",
"China"
],
"topics": [
"Economy",
"Trade",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
In The Media
TPP Is in a Coma and China Stands to Gain
The prospects for the Trans-Pacific Partnership look dim in the face of a Trump administration, which may open opportunities for China to take the lead in the Pacific region.
Published on Nov 17, 2016
Source: CNBC
Speaking to CNBC, Carnegie’s Douglas H. Paal stated his perspectives on the future of the TPP in the wake of Trump’s electional victory and transition into the presidency.
“I think the situation is one were the American people really want to see him show big change, and he can’t ignore that promise, that expectation,” Paal said. “But at the same time, you can’t tear the temple down and expect to be able to have services, to be able to do business. So it’s going to come out somewhere in between.
“We’re at the point where nobody is sending really clear signals from the Trump transition: it’s the usual three to four weeks of chaos before the main players are identified and they start to impose order on the process. And so I think it’s something you have to ride through for a little while until we get better direction from the administration.”
When asked about whether the TPP can survive in any way without U.S. involvement, Paal said, “Probably not, though I think they can make an effort. They are going to have a meeting at APEC in Lima, Peru, this weekend and the eleven other members will explore whether there’s some way to bring it together. But the big draw to TPP was getting into the American market and getting America into the other markets—and that is missing now. I would describe TPP as in a coma—it is not dead, but it’s not showing great prospects either.
“Interestingly, this is going to give a chance to China to take the lead as the responsible stakeholder in the Pacific. They’re the signers of the climate control document that’s now being questioned by the Trump team; they’re the people who got a free trade Asia-Pacific proposal, which they borrowed from the U.S. back in the 90’s, and are now taking forward, without the United States. So we may see a shift of leadership roles from the Obama administration and its pivot to Asia, to China and something else.”
About the Author
Douglas H. Paal
Distinguished Fellow, Asia Program
Paal previously served as vice chairman of JPMorgan Chase International and as unofficial U.S. representative to Taiwan as director of the American Institute in Taiwan.
- America’s Future in a Dynamic Asia
- U.S.-China Relations at the Forty-Year MarkQ&A
- +1
Douglas H. Paal, Tong Zhao, Chen Qi, …
Recent Work
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
More Work from Carnegie Europe
- Letter from the Editor: Europe Takes Two Steps Forward But One Step BackCommentary
As we close out another season of Strategic Europe, it is worth taking stock of the deep shifts underway.
Rym Momtaz
- Assessing Information Ecosystems: How Governments Can Get Ahead of Hybrid ThreatsPaper
The hybrid warfare landscape is evolving rapidly, leaving policymakers without clear strategies. To better inform their work in addressing emerging challenges, governments must dig deeper into the underlying dynamics at play.
Raluca Csernatoni, Alicia Wanless
- Taking the Pulse: Are the EU’s Watered-Down Russia Sanctions Better than None?Commentary
The EU had to compromise to adopt a twenty-first sanctions package against Russia, exposing growing cracks in the union’s resolve. Is this latest, weaker round worth it to keep pressure on Moscow?
Rym Momtaz, ed.
- Why Europe Must Take Charge of its Russia Diplomacy NowCommentary
Trump is distracted and Ukraine wants Europe to step up. The continent’s leaders must find their voice and assert it in talks with Russia.
Alissa de Carbonnel
- Why Russia Could Escalate Hybrid Warfare Against EuropeCommentary
Mounting economic strain and battlefield losses will not necessarily make the Kremlin less dangerous. They could instead push Moscow toward a more aggressive hybrid campaign designed to test NATO’s Eastern flank, exploit allied hesitation, and fracture European resolve.
Maksym Beznosiuk
