{
"authors": [
"Jarrett Blanc"
],
"type": "legacyinthemedia",
"centerAffiliationAll": "dc",
"centers": [
"Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center"
],
"collections": [],
"englishNewsletterAll": "americanStatecraft",
"nonEnglishNewsletterAll": "",
"primaryCenter": "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace",
"programAffiliation": "ASP",
"programs": [
"American Statecraft"
],
"projects": [],
"regions": [
"North America",
"United States",
"Middle East",
"Saudi Arabia",
"Gulf",
"Türkiye"
],
"topics": [
"Political Reform",
"Democracy",
"Foreign Policy"
]
}
Source: Getty
The Trump administration needs to work closely with Turkey to address the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. It is almost certain though that decisions will be made more slowly and communication handled more haltingly.
Source: Axios
In August, President Trump sanctioned Turkish Minister of Justice Abdulhamit Gul and Minister of the Interior Suleyman Soylu in an as-yet unsuccessful effort to secure the release of an American clergyman implausibly accused of involvement in the failed 2016 Turkish coup attempt. It was the beginning of an unprecedented economic attack against a NATO ally.
What’s new: The Trump administration now needs to work closely with Turkey to address the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a Virginia resident and Washington Post contributor who disappeared from the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul. Resolving the issue will require hand-in-glove cooperation with intelligence and law enforcement units under the control of Gul and Soylu — both presumably smarting from having their assets blocked and travel restricted — as well as President Erdogan, surely furious about the damage to his economy.
The background: On August 10, after the sanctions had pushed Turkey’s already fragile currency down 15% against the dollar, Trump announced that the U.S. would double tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum, to 20% and 50%. The lira’s slide then turned into a free fall, dropping more than 18% in a single day. There were fears of “contagion” among other developing economies, but Turkey reluctantly hiked interest rates and stabilized the situation. The frayed U.S.–Turkey relationship has since been on display, with Trump claiming and Turkey denying that U.S. investigators are in Turkey.
Khashoggi’s disappearance is a matter of great consequence to the U.S. Khashoggi was a moderate Saudi critic and an important voice on al-Qaeda and other terrorist movements with Saudi roots. If Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was involved — as recent reporting suggests — it would point to a brittleness in the Saudi partner and a disregard for press freedom that demand urgent attention.
What’s next: Turkey would be pleased to see a rift between Washington and Riyadh, so they will probably overcome the political and practical hurdles created by this summer’s sanctions and tariffs. It is almost certain, though, that decisions will be made more slowly and communication handled more haltingly, possibly costing important time for investigators and intelligence officers.
The bottom line: Targeting individual cabinet officers in an allied country for sanctions was unprecedented, but the Trump Administration seems to have similar targets in mind, from the International Criminal Court to European Central Bank officials. The Khashoggi case is a reminder that the U.S. needs allies and partners, and sometimes may need to resist exerting power in the interest of preserving long-term relationships.
Jarrett Blanc
Former Senior Fellow, Geoeconomics and Strategy Program
Jarrett Blanc was a senior fellow in the Geoeconomics and Strategy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
The drone strike on the British air base in Akrotiri brings Europe’s proximity to the conflict in Iran into sharp relief. In the fog of war, old tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean risk being reignited, and regional stakeholders must avoid escalation.
Marc Pierini
European reactions to the war in Iran have lost sight of wider political dynamics. The EU must position itself for the next phase of the crisis without giving up on its principles.
Richard Youngs
For years, the United States anchored global cyber diplomacy. As Washington rethinks its leadership role, the launch of the UN’s Cyber Global Mechanism may test how allies adjust their engagement.
Patryk Pawlak, Chris Painter
Europe isn’t as weak in the new geopolitics of power as many would believe. But to leverage its assets and claim a sphere of influence, Brussels must stop undercutting itself.
Dimitar Bechev
Europe’s reaction to the war in Iran has been disunited and meek, a far cry from its previously leading role in diplomacy with Tehran. To avoid being condemned to the sidelines while escalation continues, Brussels needs to stand up for international law.
Pierre Vimont